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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Aaron Wallace
age 22.8
On the live board, bust risk sits at 42% and the realistic range is No. 105 to No. 239.
Big Ten→ TEN's 2016 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Aaron Wallace at pick #188; he was actually picked #222 by TEN. 2 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 2.9 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#188OLB·UCLA
We had him No. 188 on draft night; TEN didn't call his name until No. 222 — a 34-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports