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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Thomas Duarte
age 21.1 · 6'2" · 231 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 29% and the realistic range is No. 64 to No. 248.
rank#205$1M
Big Ten→ MIA's 2016 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Thomas Duarte at pick #205; he was actually picked #231 by MIA. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.1 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $5M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#205TE·UCLA
We had him No. 205 on draft night; MIA didn't call his name until No. 231 — a 26-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Thomas Duarte at #205 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and MIA took him at No. 231, 26 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 29%, near the position baseline. The room had him #144 pre-draft; our board sat 61 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports