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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2022 board/
  3. Matthew Butler
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Matthew Butler
2022 NFL Draft prospect

Matthew Butler

DT·Tennessee·SEC
age 22.9 · 6'4" · 297 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 40% and the realistic range is No. 65 to No. 249.

206rank#206CompKingsley Keke
SEC→ LVR's 2022 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Matthew Butler at pick #206; he was actually picked #175 by LVR. 4 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 2.8 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.9M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 1%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 3 seasons).

Matthew ButlerDTDraftanomics #206
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction3Risk2Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction
#206DT·Tennessee

The league moved faster than our board — LVR took him at No. 175, 31 picks ahead of our No. 206 grade. His career is settling that argument now.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production3

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk2

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Matthew Butler at #206 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and LVR took him at No. 175, 31 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on scout consensus and his age curve. Bust risk projects at 40%, near the position baseline. The room had him #156 pre-draft; our board sat 50 spots lower.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#206
Day 3range #65–#249 · volatile
Bust Probability?
40%
1.57× EDGE / DL / LB class avg (25%)
well above class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#175
LVR · Rd 5
Career Outcome · 4 seasons?
11.2
2.8 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
1%
Bust
58%
Starter
5%
Role
36%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$0.9M/yr
2 years, $2M total.
We projected $2.8M/yr on draft night — close to the money.
Bust risk
40%
realistic range 0–48%from a model with a graded track record at this positionsecond opinion: 3 of 5 closest historical comps busted (60%)
Public-board consensus

2 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
MODEL SAVE — we faded, they busted (career avg over 4 seasons)
Gap (actual − predicted)
-31

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: his charted pass rush seasons n. Working against him: scout consensus and age.

Scout consensus
-0.03
Age
-0.03
HS recruit rating
-0.01
Production trajectory
-0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.33 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
6

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 0
Below-average play
Across 3 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Bust
Model sees real bust risk
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
1%
Starter
5%
Role
36%
Bust
58%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Elevated risk — watch the flags

Risk score29· WATCH

Everything that could go wrong with Matthew Butler, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Bust probability40%
    Elevated bust risk — the profile carries one-year-wonder, age, or athleticism red flags.
  • Predicted-pick range#65–249 · 184-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Public-board coverage2 sources
    Only a couple of public boards have a read on him — the grade has little outside corroboration.
  • Age22.9 yrs
    Within the typical DT draft-age band (~24.5).

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Comp group has bust risk
medium
2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Davon Godchaux, Chris Slayton. Mixed signal from history.
Reasons to buy
Consensus says higher
high
3 boards have him at mean rank #112; model has him #206 — a 94-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at EDGE / DL / LB, age, and recent capital invested.

TB#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters11Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NE#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
LV#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
MIA#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters11Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
KC#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters13Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior EDGE / DL / LB prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Kingsley KekeDT2019#150
↑12 pts
Contributor0.87
Greg GainesDT2019#134
→2 pts
Starter0.94
Davon GodchauxDT2017#178
→0 pts
Bust1.21
Nnamdi MadubuikeDT2020#71
→0 pts
Starter1.24
Chris SlaytonDT2019#245
→0 pts
Bust1.32
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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