Risk-Reward Quadrant
Every top-64 prospect plotted by bust probability against elite ceiling. Top-left is gold — low risk, real upside. Top-right is the high-variance corner GMs fight over in war rooms. Bottom-right is the trap.
Class:
Blue-chip safe
Jeremiah SmithWR · pick #1
The ceiling-with-a-floor quadrant — the highest upside the model can find without the bust risk attached. Usually the top of the board, not a hidden gem.
elite 52%bust risk 7%
Lottery ticket
Julian SayinQB · pick #14
Bust risk and Pro-Bowl ceiling in the same player. War-room argument fuel.
elite 38%bust risk 1%
High risk, low ceiling (by the tier model)
Chris ColeLB · pick #48
The tier model sees bust risk without the ceiling to justify it. One lens, not a verdict — check the dossier before writing him off.
elite 15%bust risk 28%
These corners come from our tier model alone — the sleepers page measures a player against the room's price, a different question, so the two can disagree and both be right.
★ BLUE-CHIP SAFE
high ceiling · low risk
⚡ BOOM-BUST
high bust · high ceiling
✓ SAFE
low bust · low ceiling
⚠ FADE
high bust · low ceiling