The 2016 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 253 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Jalen Ramsey

CB · pick 5 (JAX, 2016)

Actually went 5th to JAX.

94 Career Score · 8 Pro Bowls · 3 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Tyreek Hill

WR · pick 165 (KAN, 2016)

Taken 165th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.

85 Career Score · 8 Pro Bowls · 5 All-Pros

Biggest bust

Corey Coleman

WR · pick 15 (CLE, 2016)

Pick 15 returned a 21 Career Score over 27 games.

21 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Kenny Clark outplayed his slot by 15 spots, while Joshua Garnett fell 152.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	LAR	Jared Goff	QB	82	5	0	9	5	-4
2	PHI	Carson Wentz	QB	72	1	0	6	19	-17
3	SDG	Joey Bosa	EDGE	72	5	0	7	18	-15
4	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	78	3	1	7	8	-4
5	JAX	Jalen Ramsey	CB	94	8	3	10	1	+4
6	BAL	Ronnie Stanley	OT	35	2	1	8	93	-87
7	SFO	DeForest Buckner	EDGE	74	3	1	9	11	-4
8	TEN	Jack Conklin	OT	35	0	2	6	91	-83
9	CHI	Leonard Floyd	OLB	69	0	0	10	23	-14
10	NYG	Eli Apple	CB	60	0	0	5	41	-31
11	TAM	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	54	0	0	4	53	-42
12	NOR	Sheldon Rankins	DT	56	0	0	6	45	-33
13	MIA	Laremy Tunsil	OT	33	5	0	9	98	-85
14	OAK	Karl Joseph	S	55	0	0	4	48	-34
15	CLE	Corey Coleman	WR	21	0	0	2	147	-132
16	DET	Taylor Decker	OT	28	1	0	9	113	-97
17	ATL	Keanu Neal	S	54	1	0	3	52	-35
18	IND	Ryan Kelly	C	32	4	0	9	99	-81
19	BUF	Shaq Lawson	EDGE	53	0	0	1	55	-36
20	NYJ	Darron Lee	OLB	33	0	0	3	96	-76
21	HOU	Will Fuller	WR	54	0	0	5	54	-33
22	WAS	Josh Doctson	WR	28	0	0	2	116	-94
23	MIN	Laquon Treadwell	WR	30	0	0	2	109	-86
24	CIN	William Jackson III	CB	68	0	0	4	26	-2
25	PIT	Artie Burns	CB	44	0	0	1	71	-46
26	DEN	Paxton Lynch	QB	16	0	0	0	170	-144
27	GNB	Kenny Clark	DT	73	3	0	9	12	+15
28	SFO	Joshua Garnett	G	13	0	0	1	180	-152
29	ARI	Robert Nkemdiche	DT	28	0	0	0	117	-88
30	CAR	Vernon Butler	DT	47	0	0	2	63	-33
31	SEA	Germain Ifedi	G	17	0	0	4	163	-132

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2016 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Jalen Ramsey	CB	5	JAX	94	8	3	152
2	Kevin Byard	S	64	TEN	89	3	3	164
3	Tyreek Hill	WR	165	KAN	85	8	5	145
4	Dak Prescott	QB	135	DAL	83	4	0	139
5	Jared Goff	QB	1	LAR	82	5	0	151
6	Xavien Howard	CB	38	MIA	82	4	1	104
7	James Bradberry	CB	62	CAR	81	1	0	125
8	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	4	DAL	78	3	1	135
9	Michael Thomas	WR	47	NOR	77	3	2	83
10	Chris Jones	DT	37	KAN	74	7	3	155
11	DeForest Buckner	EDGE	7	SFO	74	3	1	151
12	Kenny Clark	DT	27	GNB	73	3	0	157
13	Matt Judon	EDGE	146	BAL	72	4	0	145
14	Vonn Bell	S	61	NOR	72	0	0	139
15	Joe Schobert	OLB	99	CLE	72	1	0	99
16	De'Vondre Campbell	OLB	115	ATL	72	0	1	128
17	Deion Jones	OLB	52	ATL	72	1	0	128
18	Joey Bosa	EDGE	3	SDG	72	5	0	122
19	Carson Wentz	QB	2	PHI	72	1	0	103
20	Kendall Fuller	CB	84	WAS	70	0	0	128
21	Justin Simmons	S	98	DEN	69	2	0	134
22	Myles Jack	OLB	36	JAX	69	0	0	106
23	Leonard Floyd	OLB	9	CHI	69	0	0	153
24	Jaylon Smith	OLB	34	DAL	69	1	0	88
25	Yannick Ngakoue	EDGE	69	JAX	69	1	0	134
26	William Jackson III	CB	24	CIN	68	0	0	75
27	Tyler Boyd	WR	55	CIN	68	0	0	136
28	Derrick Henry	RB	45	TEN	68	5	1	153
29	Austin Hooper	TE	81	ATL	68	2	0	155
30	Jarran Reed	DT	49	SEA	66	0	0	152
31	Blake Martinez	LB	131	GNB	64	0	0	85
32	Javon Hargrave	DT	89	PIT	64	2	0	146

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

165
Tyreek HillWR · KAN
Taken 165th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.
64
Kevin ByardS · TEN
Taken 64th; career value ranks 2nd in the class.
135
Dak PrescottQB · DAL
Taken 135th; career value ranks 4th in the class.
62
James BradberryCB · CAR
Taken 62nd; career value ranks 7th in the class.
146
Matt JudonEDGE · BAL
Taken 146th; career value ranks 13th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

15
Corey ColemanWR · CLE
Pick 15 returned a 21 Career Score over 27 games.
6
Ronnie StanleyOT · BAL
Pick 6 returned a 35 Career Score over 120 games.
33
Kevin DoddEDGE · TEN
Pick 33 returned a 8 Career Score over 18 games.
28
Joshua GarnettG · SFO
Pick 28 returned a 13 Career Score over 25 games.
26
Paxton LynchQB · DEN
Pick 26 returned a 16 Career Score over 5 games.

Every team's 2016 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.