The 2017 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 252 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Patrick Mahomes

QB · pick 10 (KAN, 2017)

Actually went 10th to KAN.

92 Career Score · 6 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest steal

George Kittle

TE · pick 146 (SFO, 2017)

Taken 146th; career value ranks 6th in the class.

84 Career Score · 7 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest bust

John Ross

WR · pick 9 (CIN, 2017)

Pick 9 returned a 33 Career Score over 38 games.

33 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — T.J. Watt outplayed his slot by 27 spots, while Reuben Foster fell 132.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	CLE	Myles Garrett	EDGE	87	7	5	9	4	-3
2	CHI	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	55	1	0	4	57	-55
3	SFO	Solomon Thomas	EDGE	45	0	0	2	79	-76
4	JAX	Leonard Fournette	RB	53	0	0	5	64	-60
5	TEN	Corey Davis	WR	64	0	0	5	36	-31
6	NYJ	Jamal Adams	S	79	3	1	6	8	-2
7	LAC	Mike Williams	WR	64	0	0	4	32	-25
8	CAR	Christian McCaffrey	RB	73	4	3	6	13	-5
9	CIN	John Ross	WR	33	0	0	1	105	-96
10	KAN	Patrick Mahomes	QB	92	6	2	8	1	+9
11	NOR	Marshon Lattimore	CB	79	4	0	7	7	+4
12	HOU	Deshaun Watson	QB	74	3	0	4	12	0
13	ARI	Haason Reddick	LB	67	2	0	6	21	-8
14	PHI	Derek Barnett	EDGE	54	0	0	3	60	-46
15	IND	Malik Hooker	S	57	0	0	6	50	-35
16	BAL	Marlon Humphrey	CB	85	4	2	8	5	+11
17	WAS	Jonathan Allen	EDGE	71	2	0	8	17	0
18	TEN	Adoree' Jackson	CB	68	0	0	7	20	-2
19	TAM	O.J. Howard	TE	49	0	0	4	72	-53
20	DEN	Garett Bolles	OT	26	1	1	8	126	-106
21	DET	Jarrad Davis	LB	55	0	0	3	56	-35
22	MIA	Charles Harris	OLB	47	0	0	2	75	-53
23	NYG	Evan Engram	TE	66	2	0	8	25	-2
24	OAK	Gareon Conley	CB	31	0	0	1	112	-88
25	CLE	Jabrill Peppers	S	58	0	0	5	47	-22
26	ATL	Takkarist McKinley	EDGE	46	0	0	2	76	-50
27	BUF	Tre'Davious White	CB	78	2	1	6	9	+18
28	DAL	Taco Charlton	EDGE	35	0	0	0	99	-71
29	CLE	David Njoku	TE	64	1	0	6	33	-4
30	PIT	T.J. Watt	OLB	89	8	4	9	3	+27
31	SFO	Reuben Foster	LB	17	0	0	2	163	-132
32	NOR	Ryan Ramczyk	OT	30	0	1	6	114	-82

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2017 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Patrick Mahomes	QB	10	KAN	92	6	2	126
2	Budda Baker	S	36	ARI	91	8	2	138
3	T.J. Watt	OLB	30	PIT	89	8	4	135
4	Myles Garrett	EDGE	1	CLE	87	7	5	134
5	Marlon Humphrey	CB	16	BAL	85	4	2	131
6	George Kittle	TE	146	SFO	84	7	2	124
7	Marshon Lattimore	CB	11	NOR	79	4	0	108
8	Jamal Adams	S	6	NYJ	79	3	1	102
9	Tre'Davious White	CB	27	BUF	78	2	1	109
10	Cooper Kupp	WR	69	LAR	76	1	1	120
11	Alvin Kamara	RB	67	NOR	74	5	0	126
12	Deshaun Watson	QB	12	HOU	74	3	0	73
13	Christian McCaffrey	RB	8	CAR	73	4	3	112
14	Chris Godwin	WR	84	TAM	72	1	0	120
15	Eddie Jackson	S	112	CHI	72	2	1	111
16	Shaquill Griffin	CB	90	SEA	71	1	0	108
17	Jonathan Allen	EDGE	17	WAS	71	2	0	126
18	Matt Milano	LB	163	BUF	71	1	1	106
19	Xavier Woods	S	191	DAL	69	0	0	134
20	Adoree' Jackson	CB	18	TEN	68	0	0	111
21	Haason Reddick	LB	13	ARI	67	2	0	137
22	Rayshawn Jenkins	S	113	LAC	67	0	0	139
23	Trey Hendrickson	OLB	103	NOR	67	4	1	117
24	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	62	PIT	67	1	0	121
25	Evan Engram	TE	23	NYG	66	2	0	124
26	Marcus Maye	S	39	NYJ	66	0	0	93
27	Chuck Clark	CB	186	BAL	66	0	0	123
28	Zach Cunningham	LB	57	HOU	65	0	0	106
29	Dalvin Cook	RB	41	MIN	65	4	0	90
30	Chidobe Awuzie	CB	60	DAL	64	0	0	108
31	John Johnson	S	91	LAR	64	0	0	105
32	Mike Williams	WR	7	LAC	64	0	0	106

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

146
George KittleTE · SFO
Taken 146th; career value ranks 6th in the class.
36
Budda BakerS · ARI
Taken 36th; career value ranks 2nd in the class.
191
Xavier WoodsS · DAL
Taken 191st; career value ranks 19th in the class.
163
Matt MilanoLB · BUF
Taken 163rd; career value ranks 18th in the class.
69
Cooper KuppWR · LAR
Taken 69th; career value ranks 10th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

9
John RossWR · CIN
Pick 9 returned a 33 Career Score over 38 games.
20
Garett BollesOT · DEN
Pick 20 returned a 26 Career Score over 133 games.
31
Reuben FosterLB · SFO
Pick 31 returned a 17 Career Score over 16 games.
3
Solomon ThomasEDGE · SFO
Pick 3 returned a 45 Career Score over 131 games.
38
Forrest LampG · LAC
Pick 38 returned a 13 Career Score over 26 games.

Every team's 2017 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.