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2017 NFL Draft prospectPre-Combine
Patrick Mahomes
age 21.6 · 6'2" · 225 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 15% and the realistic range is No. 17 to No. 203.
rank#44CompMarcus Mariota
Big 12→ KAN's 2017 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Patrick Mahomes at pick #44; he was actually picked #10 by KAN. 1 NFL season in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.1 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $26M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#44QB·Texas Tech
The league moved faster than our board — KAN took him at No. 10, 34 picks ahead of our No. 44 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports