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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Daniel Carlson
age 23.3 · 6'5" · 213 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 30% and the realistic range is No. 28 to No. 216.
rank#108$1.2MCompRoberto Aguayo
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Daniel Carlson at pick #108; he was actually picked #167 by MIN. 8 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -0.4 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.6M a year. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model gives him a 37% chance at an elite career. NFL grades have been modest so far (5% recent-3, 32% peak across 7 seasons). Model predicted $6M/yr; actual $1M (over by $6M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#108K·Auburn
We had him No. 108 on draft night; MIN didn't call his name until No. 167 — a 59-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production7
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports