Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2018 board/
  3. Simeon Thomas
Refreshed just now
Simeon Thomas
2018 NFL Draft prospect

Simeon Thomas

CB·Louisiana
age 24.6
252
→ CLE's 2018 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Simeon Thomas at pick #252; he was actually picked #188 by CLE. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 2.6 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.5M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).

Simeon ThomasCBDraftanomics #252
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction1RiskTeam fitWill he be there?CompsFilm & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction
#252CB·Louisiana

The league moved faster than our board — CLE took him at No. 188, 64 picks ahead of our No. 252 grade. His career is settling that argument now.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production1

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Simeon Thomas at #252 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and CLE took him at No. 188, 64 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 53%, elevated against the position baseline.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#252
Day 3range #115–#267 · volatile
Bust Probability?
53%
The model is fuzzy in the 40-60% band — the realistic range below tells the real story.
2.7× CB / S class avg (19%)
well above class avg
Actual NFL Pick?
#188
CLE · Rd 6
Year 1 Outcome?
No NFL data yet
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
3%
Bust
84%
Starter
4%
Role
9%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$0.5M/yr
2 years, $1M total.
We projected $3.0M/yr on draft night — close to the money.
Bust risk
53%
Public-board consensus

No public-board coverage yet.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Model lower than NFL
Gap (actual − predicted)
-64

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

The grade is held down by age, how many boards rank him top-100, and school strength.

Age
-0.07
School strength
-0.02
Scout consensus
-0.02
Conference strength
-0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.17 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
7

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 0
Below-average play
Across 1 NFL season.
4-tier outlook?
Bust
Model sees real bust risk
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
3%
Starter
4%
Role
9%
Bust
84%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Risk dashboard

High-risk profile — multiple critical flags

Risk score74· HIGH RISK

Everything that could go wrong with Simeon Thomas, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Bust probability53%
    The model gives even odds or worse that this career never gets past role-player level.
  • Age red flag24.6 yrs
    1.6 years older than the typical drafted CB (23) — older prospects at the position tend to have already peaked.
  • Public-board coverage0 sources
    No public big board has ranked this prospect yet. The grade rests entirely on stats, measurables, and age — hold it loosely.
  • Predicted-pick range#115–267 · 152-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
Scheme context
Loading…
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
Loading…

    Who picks where he’s projected

    Roster-based need returns once the 2017 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 252, and which of them already spent premium capital at CB / S in the 2017 draft.

    PIT · No. 246JAX · No. 247GB · No. 248CIN · No. 249NE · No. 250LAC · No. 251CIN · No. 252CIN · No. 253

    Gold means no recent premium investment at CB / S — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.