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rank#226
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ian Thomas at pick #226; he was actually picked #101 by CAR. 8 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $5.7M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 8% peak across 7 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $7M/yr, actual was $6M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#226TE·Indiana
The league moved faster than our board — CAR took him at No. 101, 125 picks ahead of our No. 226 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ian Thomas at #226 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and CAR took him at No. 101, 125 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 21%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #117 pre-draft; our board sat 109 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production7
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports