On the live board, bust risk sits at 34% and the realistic range is No. 109 to No. 261.
The model graded Danny Etling at pick #246; he was actually picked #219 by NWE. Model predicted $5M/yr; actual $0M (over by $5M).
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
The league moved faster than our board — NWE took him at No. 219, 27 picks ahead of our No. 246 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Danny Etling at #246 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NWE took him at No. 219, 27 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 34%, near the position baseline.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Too early to project a career arc.
No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: athlete×producer interaction. Working against him: age and how many boards rank him top-100.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.
Everything that could go wrong with Danny Etling, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at QB, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior QB prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | QB | 2015 | #103 | →0 pts | Starter | 1.28 |
| Kevin Hogan | QB | 2016 | #162 | →0 pts | Starter | 1.87 |
| Cody Kessler | QB | 2016 | #93 | →0 pts | Starter | 1.99 |
| Jake Rudock | QB | 2016 | #191 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.10 |
| Brandon Allen | QB | 2016 | #201 | no data | TBD | 2.21 |