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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Chad Thomas
age 22.5 · 6'6" · 281 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 78% and the realistic range is No. 83 to No. 267.
rank#224CompNoah Spence
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Chad Thomas at pick #224; he was actually picked #67 by CLE. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.6 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#224EDGE·Miami (FL)
The league moved faster than our board — CLE took him at No. 67, 157 picks ahead of our No. 224 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports