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Print-ready scout sheet
Sam Darnold
QB · USC · age 20.9 · 6'3" · 221 lb
Draftanomics scout sheet
Board model
Generated August 5, 2026
Draftanomics pick
#29
1st Round
Bust probability
16%
Low risk
Actual NFL pick
#3
NYJ
Consensus rank
#10
27 sources
Why this projection
+1.0 ≈ pushed pick ~25 spots earlier; −1.0 ≈ ~25 spots later
| Pre-draft consensus | +0.10 |
| Boards ranking him top-100 | +0.07 |
| Boards ranking him top-50 | +0.04 |
| Number of public boards | +0.03 |
| Rank within his position class | +0.03 |
| cons min rank | +0.02 |
| High-school recruit grade | +0.02 |
| charting deep completion pct career avg | -0.02 |
Pre-draft consensus (29 sources)
ESPN Scouts Inc.#4
Athlon Sports#9
Bleacher Report (Matt Miller)#5
Canal Street Chronicles (Deuce Windham)#31
CBS (Chris Trapasso)#25
Drafttek#1
Fanspeak (Steve Shoup)#7
Gmen Hq (Henry Buggy)#1
Mile High Report (Christopher Hart)#5
NFL Com (Mike Mayock)#7
NFL Spin Zone (Peter Smith)#3
Nj Com (Matt Lombardo)#4
Pewter Report (Trevor Sikkema)#33
Pro Football Focus#2
SB Nation (Dan Kadar)#8
Sporting News (Eric Galko)#101
NFL outcomes (so far)
Seasons
8
Games played
20
Avg snap share
54%
2nd-deal AAV
$4.5M
Closest historical comps
| Player | Draft | Year 1 grade (of 20) | Arc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 2016 · #1 | 8.4 | Starter |
| Connor Cook | 2016 · #100 | 7.4 | Bust |
| Carson Wentz | 2016 · #2 | 14.6 | Starter |
| Paxton Lynch | 2016 · #26 | 9.9 | Starter |
| Kevin Hogan | 2016 · #162 | 9.2 | Starter |