On the live board, bust risk sits at 25% and the realistic range is No. 140 to No. 274.
The model graded Qadree Ollison at pick #223; he was actually picked #152 by ATL. 5 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.3 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.8M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 5 seasons).
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
The league moved faster than our board — ATL took him at No. 152, 71 picks ahead of our No. 223 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Qadree Ollison at #223 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and ATL took him at No. 152, 71 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 25%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: his charted yards per route run from the slot, best season. Working against him: how many boards rank him top-100 and power-5 production share.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Qadree Ollison, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Cobb | RB | 2015 | #138 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.25 |
| Matthew Dayes | RB | 2017 | #252 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.63 |
| D'Onta Foreman | RB | 2017 | #89 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.69 |
| Khalfani Muhammad | RB | 2017 | #241 | no data | TBD | 1.77 |
| Elijah McGuire | RB | 2017 | #188 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.81 |