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rank#149$1.1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Joe Jackson at pick #149; he was actually picked #165 by DAL. 3 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.9M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 8%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 3 seasons). Model predicted $5M/yr; actual $1M (over by $4M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#149EDGE·Miami (FL)
We had him No. 149 on draft night; DAL didn't call his name until No. 165 — a 16-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Joe Jackson at #149 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 165. The model's case leans on his age curve and broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 62% — well above the position median; the model is flagging this as a high-variance pick. The room had him #80 pre-draft; our board sat 69 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports