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rank#108$1.2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Marvell Tell III at pick #108; he was actually picked #144 by IND. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.5 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.2M a year. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 7%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#108S·USC
We had him No. 108 on draft night; IND didn't call his name until No. 144 — a 36-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Marvell Tell III at #108 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and IND took him at No. 144, 36 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 16%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #142 pre-draft; our board was 34 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports