Draftanomics

AAV rankings

Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.

#PlayerPosCollege2nd-deal oddsAAV if signedActualDiff
1Austin SiereveldGOhio State89%$12.7M-$19.4M
2Kade PieperCIowa85%$11.4M-$17.4M
3Trevor GoosbyOTTexas77%$11.9M-$18.2M
4Jordan SeatonOTLSU84%$10.3M-$15.8M
5Cayden GreenOTMissouri77%$9.2M-$14.1M
6Samson OkunlolaOTMiami69%$9.3M-$14.2M
7Iapani LalouluGOregon73%$8.8M-$13.5M
8Trevor LauckOTIowa59%$10.5M-$16.1M
9Ian MooreGOhio State75%$7.9M-$12.1M
10PJ WilliamsOTSMU74%$7.5M-$11.5M
11Jacarrius PeakGSouth Carolina67%$7.9M-$12.2M
12Brandon BakerOTTexas71%$6.1M-$9.4M
13Anthonie KnappOTNotre Dame52%$6.9M-$10.6M
14Nick Del GrandeOTDuke48%$5.8M-$9.0M
15Greg JohnsonGMinnesota54%$5.1M-$7.8M
16Blake FrazierOTMichigan34%$7.4M-$11.3M
17Anthony DonkohGPenn State42%$5.8M-$8.9M
18DJ MooreGIndiana$4.0M-$6.1M
19Drew AzzopardiOTWashington57%$3.8M-$5.9M
20Evan TengesdahlGCincinnati35%$5.8M-$9.0M
21Mike WilliamsOTTowson$3.3M-$5.1M
22Luke MontgomeryGOhio State52%$3.5M-$5.3M
23DeAndre CarterGIowa State$3.2M-$4.8M
24Carson HinzmanGOhio State48%$3.7M-$5.6M
25Luke MastersonOTNorth Carolina$2.9M-$4.5M
26Lance HeardOTKentucky41%$3.8M-$5.7M
27Andrew SpragueOTMichigan28%$2.8M-$4.3M
28Charles JagusahOTNotre Dame32%$2.3M-$3.6M
29Coen EcholsGTexas A&M24%$2.4M-$3.7M
30James AloisioOTUtah State$0.9M-$1.3M
31Kameron DurantGCampbell$0.9M-$1.3M
32Shamurad UmarovGTennessee$0.9M-$1.3M
33Curtis PeaglerGMissouri$0.9M-$1.3M
34Keyon CoxOTUAB$0.9M-$1.3M
35De'Eric MisterOTHoward$0.9M-$1.3M
36Ethan FieldsGAlabama$0.9M-$1.3M
37Grey RumohrOTNorthern Illinois$0.9M-$1.3M
38Kellen McDonoughOTDuquesne$0.9M-$1.3M
39Ryan SilverGSan Diego State$0.9M-$1.3M
40Kahlee TafaiOTCalifornia$0.9M-$1.3M
41Aaron FenimoreGLiberty$0.9M-$1.3M
42Craig WydraGUTEP$0.9M-$1.3M
43Jayden BassOTUConn$0.9M-$1.3M
44William Satterwhite IIGLSU$0.9M-$1.3M
45Weston DavisOTLSU$0.9M-$1.3M
46Grant BrixOTNebraska$0.9M-$1.3M
47Alex GaleGMiddle Tennessee$0.9M-$1.3M
48Keanon McNallyOTTulane$0.9M-$1.3M
49Kris ManuGMiami (OH)$0.9M-$1.3M
50Trent RamseyOTApp State$0.9M-$1.3M
51Quinn Grovesteen-MatcheyOTWyoming$0.9M-$1.3M
52Levi HarberOTVanderbilt$0.9M-$1.3M
53Jason SteeleGBoise State$0.9M-$1.3M
54Elias CloyGAlabama A&M$0.9M-$1.3M
55Bryant WilliamsOTArkansas$0.9M-$1.3M
56Jason OvertonGMiddle Tennessee$0.9M-$1.3M
57Ryan CoryGWisconsin$0.9M-$1.3M
58Spencer AlvarezOTMinnesota$0.9M-$1.3M
59Nick KraheGWest Virginia$0.9M-$1.3M
60Mason VicariGPurdue$0.9M-$1.3M
61John PastoreGKansas State$0.9M-$1.3M
62Ben GustafsonOTNorthern Illinois$0.9M-$1.3M
63Amos TalaleleGKansas State$0.9M-$1.3M
64Hayden TreterOTUSC$0.9M-$1.3M
65Nathan RoyGMinnesota$0.9M-$1.3M
66Matthew NehfGCentral Michigan$0.9M-$1.3M
67Blake SteenOTMississippi State$0.9M-$1.3M
68Christian PettwayOTStephen F. Austin$0.9M-$1.3M
69Nick MorrowOTKansas$0.9M-$1.3M
70Misael SandovalOTBall State$0.9M-$1.3M
71Joe CruzOTSyracuse$0.9M-$1.3M
72Keon RoheOTFlorida Atlantic$0.9M-$1.3M
73Waltclaire Flynn Jr.GGeorgia$0.9M-$1.3M
74Cooper StarksOTSouth Dakota State$0.9M-$1.3M
75Madden SankerGFlorida Atlantic$0.9M-$1.3M
76Luke HamiltonGMichigan$0.9M-$1.3M
77Matthew YuschakGMarshall$0.9M-$1.3M
78Hank ZilinskasGRutgers$0.9M-$1.3M
79Edward HartigGMiami (OH)$0.9M-$1.3M
80Terez DavisOTOle Miss$0.9M-$1.3M
81Samir CamachoGTCU$0.9M-$1.3M
82Joey BakerOTKansas$0.9M-$1.3M
83Zachary HenningOTArizona$0.9M-$1.3M
84Rustin YoungOTMichigan State$0.9M-$1.3M
85Cole RhettOTBaylor$0.9M-$1.3M
86Malik AgboOTWest Virginia$0.9M-$1.3M
87Isendre AhfuaGTexas A&M$0.9M-$1.3M
88Deshawn WoodsGWyoming$0.9M-$1.3M
89Dasan SmithOTCentral Michigan$0.9M-$1.3M
90Trason HuntOTArkansas State$0.9M-$1.3M
91Makai SainaGPurdue$0.9M-$1.3M
92Harris SewellGClemson$0.9M-$1.3M
93Eddy Pierre-LouisGOklahoma$0.9M-$1.3M
94Evan BushongGJames Madison$0.9M-$1.3M
95Brady PlouchaOTCentral Michigan$0.9M-$1.3M
96Jake SteeleOTBoise State$0.9M-$1.3M
97Elyjah ThurmonGClemson$0.9M-$1.3M
98Zachary SessionGMcNeese$0.9M-$1.3M
99Dennis RahouskiGNorthwestern$0.9M-$1.3M
100Knijeah HarrisGFlorida7%$3.9M-$6.0M

How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.