AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Siereveld | G | Ohio State | 89% | $12.7M-$19.4M | — | — |
| 2 | Kade Pieper | C | Iowa | 85% | $11.4M-$17.4M | — | — |
| 3 | Trevor Goosby | OT | Texas | 77% | $11.9M-$18.2M | — | — |
| 4 | Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU | 84% | $10.3M-$15.8M | — | — |
| 5 | Cayden Green | OT | Missouri | 77% | $9.2M-$14.1M | — | — |
| 6 | Samson Okunlola | OT | Miami | 69% | $9.3M-$14.2M | — | — |
| 7 | Iapani Laloulu | G | Oregon | 73% | $8.8M-$13.5M | — | — |
| 8 | Trevor Lauck | OT | Iowa | 59% | $10.5M-$16.1M | — | — |
| 9 | Ian Moore | G | Ohio State | 75% | $7.9M-$12.1M | — | — |
| 10 | PJ Williams | OT | SMU | 74% | $7.5M-$11.5M | — | — |
| 11 | Jacarrius Peak | G | South Carolina | 67% | $7.9M-$12.2M | — | — |
| 12 | Brandon Baker | OT | Texas | 71% | $6.1M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 13 | Anthonie Knapp | OT | Notre Dame | 52% | $6.9M-$10.6M | — | — |
| 14 | Nick Del Grande | OT | Duke | 48% | $5.8M-$9.0M | — | — |
| 15 | Greg Johnson | G | Minnesota | 54% | $5.1M-$7.8M | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Frazier | OT | Michigan | 34% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 17 | Anthony Donkoh | G | Penn State | 42% | $5.8M-$8.9M | — | — |
| 18 | DJ Moore | G | Indiana | — | $4.0M-$6.1M | — | — |
| 19 | Drew Azzopardi | OT | Washington | 57% | $3.8M-$5.9M | — | — |
| 20 | Evan Tengesdahl | G | Cincinnati | 35% | $5.8M-$9.0M | — | — |
| 21 | Mike Williams | OT | Towson | — | $3.3M-$5.1M | — | — |
| 22 | Luke Montgomery | G | Ohio State | 52% | $3.5M-$5.3M | — | — |
| 23 | DeAndre Carter | G | Iowa State | — | $3.2M-$4.8M | — | — |
| 24 | Carson Hinzman | G | Ohio State | 48% | $3.7M-$5.6M | — | — |
| 25 | Luke Masterson | OT | North Carolina | — | $2.9M-$4.5M | — | — |
| 26 | Lance Heard | OT | Kentucky | 41% | $3.8M-$5.7M | — | — |
| 27 | Andrew Sprague | OT | Michigan | 28% | $2.8M-$4.3M | — | — |
| 28 | Charles Jagusah | OT | Notre Dame | 32% | $2.3M-$3.6M | — | — |
| 29 | Coen Echols | G | Texas A&M | 24% | $2.4M-$3.7M | — | — |
| 30 | James Aloisio | OT | Utah State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 31 | Kameron Durant | G | Campbell | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 32 | Shamurad Umarov | G | Tennessee | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 33 | Curtis Peagler | G | Missouri | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 34 | Keyon Cox | OT | UAB | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 35 | De'Eric Mister | OT | Howard | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 36 | Ethan Fields | G | Alabama | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 37 | Grey Rumohr | OT | Northern Illinois | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 38 | Kellen McDonough | OT | Duquesne | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 39 | Ryan Silver | G | San Diego State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 40 | Kahlee Tafai | OT | California | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 41 | Aaron Fenimore | G | Liberty | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 42 | Craig Wydra | G | UTEP | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 43 | Jayden Bass | OT | UConn | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 44 | William Satterwhite II | G | LSU | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 45 | Weston Davis | OT | LSU | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 46 | Grant Brix | OT | Nebraska | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 47 | Alex Gale | G | Middle Tennessee | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 48 | Keanon McNally | OT | Tulane | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 49 | Kris Manu | G | Miami (OH) | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 50 | Trent Ramsey | OT | App State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 51 | Quinn Grovesteen-Matchey | OT | Wyoming | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 52 | Levi Harber | OT | Vanderbilt | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 53 | Jason Steele | G | Boise State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 54 | Elias Cloy | G | Alabama A&M | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 55 | Bryant Williams | OT | Arkansas | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 56 | Jason Overton | G | Middle Tennessee | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 57 | Ryan Cory | G | Wisconsin | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 58 | Spencer Alvarez | OT | Minnesota | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 59 | Nick Krahe | G | West Virginia | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 60 | Mason Vicari | G | Purdue | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 61 | John Pastore | G | Kansas State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 62 | Ben Gustafson | OT | Northern Illinois | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 63 | Amos Talalele | G | Kansas State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 64 | Hayden Treter | OT | USC | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 65 | Nathan Roy | G | Minnesota | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 66 | Matthew Nehf | G | Central Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 67 | Blake Steen | OT | Mississippi State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 68 | Christian Pettway | OT | Stephen F. Austin | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 69 | Nick Morrow | OT | Kansas | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 70 | Misael Sandoval | OT | Ball State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 71 | Joe Cruz | OT | Syracuse | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 72 | Keon Rohe | OT | Florida Atlantic | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 73 | Waltclaire Flynn Jr. | G | Georgia | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 74 | Cooper Starks | OT | South Dakota State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 75 | Madden Sanker | G | Florida Atlantic | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 76 | Luke Hamilton | G | Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 77 | Matthew Yuschak | G | Marshall | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 78 | Hank Zilinskas | G | Rutgers | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 79 | Edward Hartig | G | Miami (OH) | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 80 | Terez Davis | OT | Ole Miss | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 81 | Samir Camacho | G | TCU | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 82 | Joey Baker | OT | Kansas | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 83 | Zachary Henning | OT | Arizona | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 84 | Rustin Young | OT | Michigan State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 85 | Cole Rhett | OT | Baylor | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 86 | Malik Agbo | OT | West Virginia | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 87 | Isendre Ahfua | G | Texas A&M | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 88 | Deshawn Woods | G | Wyoming | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 89 | Dasan Smith | OT | Central Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 90 | Trason Hunt | OT | Arkansas State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 91 | Makai Saina | G | Purdue | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 92 | Harris Sewell | G | Clemson | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 93 | Eddy Pierre-Louis | G | Oklahoma | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 94 | Evan Bushong | G | James Madison | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 95 | Brady Ploucha | OT | Central Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 96 | Jake Steele | OT | Boise State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 97 | Elyjah Thurmon | G | Clemson | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 98 | Zachary Session | G | McNeese | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 99 | Dennis Rahouski | G | Northwestern | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 100 | Knijeah Harris | G | Florida | 7% | $3.9M-$6.0M | — | — |
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.