AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
Showing 2025. Back to the live class (2027).
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahdae Barron | CB | Texas | 96% | $14.6M-$22.4M | — | — |
| 2 | Will Johnson | CB | Michigan | 80% | $12.3M-$18.9M | — | — |
| 3 | Benjamin Morrison | CB | Notre Dame | 84% | $9.7M-$14.8M | — | — |
| 4 | Shavon Revel | CB | East Carolina | 77% | $10.2M-$15.7M | — | — |
| 5 | Trey Amos | CB | Mississippi | 88% | $8.9M-$13.6M | — | — |
| 6 | Azareye'h Thomas | CB | Florida St. | 76% | $9.3M-$14.2M | — | — |
| 7 | Darien Porter | CB | Iowa St. | 92% | $6.0M-$9.3M | — | — |
| 8 | Maxwell Hairston | CB | Kentucky | 95% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 9 | Mac McWilliams | CB | Central Florida | 70% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 10 | Jacob Parrish | CB | Kansas St. | 72% | $6.1M-$9.3M | — | — |
| 11 | Robert Longerbeam | CB | Rutgers | 62% | $7.0M-$10.8M | — | — |
| 12 | Justin Walley | CB | Minnesota | 55% | $6.8M-$10.5M | — | — |
| 13 | Rayuan Lane | S | Navy | 72% | $4.4M-$6.8M | — | — |
| 14 | Quincy Riley | CB | Louisville | 53% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 15 | Micah Robinson | CB | Tulane | 22% | $9.9M-$15.2M | — | — |
| 16 | Korie Black | CB | Oklahoma St. | 37% | $5.5M-$8.5M | — | — |
| 17 | Upton Stout | CB | Western Kentucky | 24% | $6.6M-$10.1M | — | — |
| 18 | Kobee Minor | CB | Memphis | 16% | $7.7M-$11.8M | — | — |
| 19 | Dorian Strong | CB | Virginia Tech | 11% | $6.8M-$10.4M | — | — |
| 20 | Donte Kent | CB | Central Michigan | 10% | $7.0M-$10.7M | — | — |
| 21 | Nohl Williams | CB | California | 10% | $5.4M-$8.3M | — | — |
| 22 | Zah Frazier | CB | Texas-San Antonio | 8% | $4.7M-$7.2M | — | — |
| 23 | Denzel Burke | CB | Ohio St. | 2% | $5.9M-$9.0M | — | — |
| 24 | Jaylin Smith | CB | USC | 2% | $4.0M-$6.1M | — | — |
| 25 | Jason Marshall | CB | Florida | 3% | $2.4M-$3.8M | — | — |
| 26 | Bilhal Kone | CB | Western Michigan | 2% | $3.4M-$5.3M | — | — |
| 27 | Marcus Harris | CB | California | 1% | $5.5M-$8.4M | — | — |
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.