3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Logan Stenberg as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #84-#128, wide band). Bust probability sits at 68% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaac Asiata, Cole Madison (Bust), Nico Siragusa. Ceiling is Jeremiah Poutasi; floor is Isaac Asiata. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #106 and the room's #106 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 68% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ben Bredeson as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #28-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Joshua Garnett, Vadal Alexander. Ceiling is Braden Smith (Franchise); floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #82 sits within 7 spots of the room's #89 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ben Bartch as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #36-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Colby Gossett (Contributor), Jordan Morgan, Sam Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Terry Poole; floor is Colby Gossett (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #55 vs consensus #97), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.