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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
CM
Cameron McGrone
LB · Michigan
20.9 yo · — · —
BJ
Buddy Johnson
LB · Texas A&M
22.2 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Cameron McGrone over Buddy Johnson.

Decisive factor: 68-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Cameron McGrone
Predicted pick
#61
range #24–#98
Bust probability
43%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#91
on 8 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Buddy Johnson
Predicted pick
#129
range #95–#163
Bust probability
41%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Cameron McGrone· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Buddy Johnson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCameron McGrone0
  • AthleticismBuddy Johnson39
  • AgeBuddy Johnson97
  • ConsensusBuddy Johnson14
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Cameron McGrone50
  • Breakout ageCameron McGrone50
  • WorkloadCameron McGrone100
  • RAS × productionBuddy Johnson100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Cameron McGrone
  • Anthony Walker
    LB · #161
    Bust
  • Vosean Joseph
    LB · #147
    TBD
  • Raekwon McMillan
    LB · #54
    TBD
  • Cameron Smith
    LB · #162
    Bust
  • Shaquille Leonard
    LB · #36
    Franchise
Buddy Johnson
  • David Long
    LB · #188
    Starter
  • Cody Barton
    LB · #88
    Starter
  • Kenny Young
    LB · #122
    Contributor
  • Zaire Franklin
    LB · #235
    Starter
  • Jayon Brown
    LB · #155
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Cameron McGrone
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #177 by NWE in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Anthony Walker, Cameron Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Buddy Johnson
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #293; model has him #129 — a 164-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: David Long, Cody Barton, Zaire Franklin. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Cameron McGroneBuddy Johnson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Cameron McGrone

Draftanomics projects Cameron McGrone (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #24-#98, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Walker (Bust), Vosean Joseph, Raekwon McMillan. Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Vosean Joseph. Drafted #177 by NWE in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #61 against a consensus #87 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.

Buddy Johnson

Draftanomics projects Buddy Johnson (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #95-#163, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 41% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Long (Starter), Cody Barton (Starter), Kenny Young (Contributor). Ceiling is Cody Barton (Starter); floor is Kenny Young (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 164 spots ahead of the room (board #129 vs consensus #293), and at a 41% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.