Dynasty rookie board

The same career-value model that runs the big board, pointed at the only question a dynasty GM ever has: which rookies return fantasy production, and for how long. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends only — nobody starts a left tackle.

The 2023 class has been drafted — this board is the model’s pre-draft read, useful as a receipt against how the rookies actually landed.

Format1QB Superflex|Year2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022

1QB starts one quarterback, so even good QB prospects slide — QBs carry a 0.80 multiplier. Superflex starts two, which makes the position the scarcest asset in the format — QBs carry 1.30 instead. Nothing else changes between the two boards.

#	Player	Pos	College	Dynasty score	How it's built	Bust	Tier	Consensus
1	Bryce Young	QB	Alabama	118.3	91.0 × 1.30	16%	Elite	1
2	Anthony Richardson	QB	Florida	116.1	89.3 × 1.30	25%	Starter	9
3	C.J. Stroud	QB	Ohio St.	109.3	84.1 × 1.30	22%	Elite	3
4	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	Ohio St.	109.1	99.1 × 1.10	1%	Elite	12
5	Will Levis	QB	Kentucky	92.8	71.4 × 1.30	20%	Starter	24
6	Hendon Hooker	QB	Tennessee	89.4	68.8 × 1.30	15%	Starter	48
7	Michael Mayer	TE	Notre Dame	83.8	88.2 × 0.95	1%	Starter	16
8	Jordan Addison	WR	USC	83.5	75.9 × 1.10	7%	Starter	21
9	Bijan Robinson	RB	Texas	82.5	97.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	15%	Elite	5
10	Quentin Johnston	WR	TCU	81.9	74.4 × 1.10	0%	Starter	22
11	Zay Flowers	WR	Boston Col.	76.4	69.4 × 1.10	4%	Elite	26
12	Josh Downs	WR	North Carolina	72.8	66.2 × 1.10	4%	Elite	41
13	Dalton Kincaid	TE	Utah	72.3	76.1 × 0.95	10%	Starter	25
14	Darnell Washington	TE	Georgia	71.3	75.0 × 0.95	15%	Role player	31
15	Jalin Hyatt	WR	Tennessee	71.2	64.7 × 1.10	1%	Role player	43
16	Luke Musgrave	TE	Oregon St.	70.0	73.7 × 0.95	12%	Starter	52
17	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	Alabama	69.7	82.0 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Elite	23
18	Tyler Scott	WR	Cincinnati	68.6	62.4 × 1.10	7%	Role player	70
19	Sam LaPorta	TE	Iowa	65.9	69.4 × 0.95	7%	Elite	56
20	Clayton Tune	QB	Houston	64.8	49.8 × 1.30	16%	Role player	154
21	Rashee Rice	WR	SMU	60.0	54.5 × 1.10	0%	Starter	81
22	Xavier Hutchinson	WR	Iowa St.	58.8	53.5 × 1.10	32%	Role player	90
23	A.T. Perry	WR	Wake Forest	58.6	53.3 × 1.10	1%	Role player	112
24	Marvin Mims	WR	Oklahoma	56.8	51.6 × 1.10	0%	Elite	71
25	Zach Charbonnet	RB	UCLA	56.6	67.6 × 0.85 × 0.98	22%	Role player	63
26	Tucker Kraft	TE	South Dakota St.	54.5	57.4 × 0.95	25%	Starter	72
27	Tyjae Spears	RB	Tulane	53.4	62.8 × 0.85 × 1.00	22%	Role player	75
28	Tank Dell	WR	Houston	52.8	48.0 × 1.10	3%	Starter	89
29	Roschon Johnson	RB	Texas	51.8	61.7 × 0.85 × 0.99	19%	Role player	108
30	Kendre Miller	RB	TCU	51.5	60.6 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Role player	93
31	Jayden Reed	WR	Michigan St.	50.7	46.1 × 1.10	29%	Starter	103
32	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	Michigan	49.2	51.8 × 0.95	23%	Role player	137
33	Tank Bigsby	RB	Auburn	49.2	57.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Role player	122
34	Jaren Hall	QB	BYU	48.4	37.2 × 1.30	31%	Role player	111
35	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	Virginia	47.2	42.9 × 1.10	13%	Role player	139
36	Jonathan Mingo	WR	Mississippi	46.5	42.3 × 1.10	1%	Role player	69
37	De'Von Achane	RB	Texas A&M	45.0	52.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	7%	Starter	68
38	Cedric Tillman	WR	Tennessee	44.0	40.0 × 1.10	8%	Role player	62
39	Andrei Iosivas	WR	Princeton	42.8	38.9 × 1.10	30%	Starter	167
40	Kayshon Boutte	WR	LSU	42.6	38.7 × 1.10	23%	Role player	66
41	Jake Haener	QB	Fresno St.	42.3	32.5 × 1.30	26%	Role player	125
42	Israel Abanikanda	RB	Pittsburgh	41.7	49.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	10%	Role player	73
43	Puka Nacua	WR	BYU	39.9	36.2 × 1.10	50%	Elite	160
44	Max Duggan	QB	TCU	39.7	30.6 × 1.30	27%	—	—
45	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	QB	UCLA	39.3	30.2 × 1.30	28%	Role player	124
46	Deuce Vaughn	RB	Kansas St.	39.2	46.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	23%	Role player	151
47	Michael Wilson	WR	Stanford	38.8	35.3 × 1.10	31%	Starter	113
48	DeMario Douglas	WR	Liberty	38.1	34.7 × 1.10	48%	Role player	183
49	DeWayne McBride	RB	Ala-Birmingham	37.8	44.5 × 0.85 × 1.00	22%	Role player	144
50	Tre Tucker	WR	Cincinnati	37.4	34.0 × 1.10	36%	Starter	177
51	Stetson Bennett	QB	Georgia	37.3	28.7 × 1.30	30%	Bust	101
52	Ronnie Bell	WR	Michigan	35.4	32.2 × 1.10	20%	Role player	187
53	Sean Clifford	QB	Penn St.	35.2	27.1 × 1.30	25%	Role player	—
54	Parker Washington	WR	Penn St.	34.6	31.4 × 1.10	4%	Starter	149
55	Zach Evans	RB	Mississippi	34.6	40.8 × 0.85 × 1.00	14%	Bust	91
56	Zack Kuntz	TE	Old Dominion	34.4	36.2 × 0.95	49%	Bust	156
57	Justin Shorter	WR	Florida	34.4	31.3 × 1.10	17%	Bust	173
58	Grant Dubose	WR	Charlotte	34.0	30.9 × 1.10	21%	Bust	176
59	Eric Gray	RB	Oklahoma	33.9	43.1 × 0.85 × 0.93	27%	Role player	86
60	Chase Brown	RB	Illinois	33.9	42.2 × 0.85 × 0.94	13%	Role player	153
61	Brenton Strange	TE	Penn St.	33.6	35.3 × 0.95	16%	Role player	130
62	Chris Rodriguez	RB	Kentucky	33.5	40.6 × 0.85 × 0.97	6%	Role player	198
63	Charlie Jones	WR	Purdue	31.1	28.2 × 1.10	26%	Bust	138
64	Davis Allen	TE	Clemson	30.8	32.4 × 0.95	24%	Role player	78
65	Jalen Brooks	WR	South Carolina	30.6	27.8 × 1.10	37%	Bust	—
66	Kenny McIntosh	RB	Georgia	28.6	35.8 × 0.85 × 0.94	49%	Bust	95
67	Tanner McKee	QB	Stanford	27.8	21.4 × 1.30	46%	Bust	141
68	Lew Nichols	RB	Central Michigan	26.2	30.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	63%	Bust	—
69	Derius Davis	WR	TCU	25.5	23.2 × 1.10	19%	Elite	—
70	Will Mallory	TE	Miami (FL)	25.4	26.7 × 0.95	39%	Role player	127
71	Antoine Green	WR	North Carolina	25.1	22.8 × 1.10	35%	Bust	217
72	Colton Dowell	WR	UT Martin	23.9	21.8 × 1.10	9%	Bust	—
73	Elijah Higgins	WR	Stanford	23.9	21.8 × 1.10	30%	Role player	210
74	Brayden Willis	TE	Oklahoma	23.7	25.0 × 0.95	23%	Bust	—
75	Evan Hull	RB	Northwestern	23.6	28.5 × 0.85 × 0.97	14%	Bust	182
76	Aidan O'Connell	QB	Purdue	23.0	17.7 × 1.30	32%	Starter	195
77	Cameron Latu	TE	Alabama	21.9	23.1 × 0.95	31%	Starter	186
78	Payne Durham	TE	Purdue	21.7	22.9 × 0.95	40%	Role player	196
79	Trey Palmer	WR	Nebraska	20.4	18.5 × 1.10	50%	Role player	76
80	Josh Whyle	TE	Cincinnati	17.5	18.4 × 0.95	28%	Role player	190

How this differs from the big board

Built from the same models as the big board — here's exactly how the lens differs. The base is the served career-value model score, untouched. On top of it sit three documented adjustments, all shown per player in the table:

Dynasty score = model score × position multiplier (Superflex) × RB age multiplier

Position: QB ×1.30, RB ×0.85, WR ×1.10, TE ×0.95 — QB scarcity by format, the RB career-length discount, the WR longevity premium, the TE slow-onboarding haircut.
RB age cliff: RB only: 1.00 at age 22 or younger at draft, minus 0.05 per year older, floor 0.85. When we don't have a player's age on file, no adjustment is applied and the row says so.
Tier reads: shown only where the tier model itself stands behind them; when it isn't confident, you get a dash, not a guess.

The multipliers are round numbers encoding dynasty-market convention (QB scarcity by format, the RB age cliff, WR longevity, the TE year-3 breakout) — convention, not Draftanomics research. The model signal is entirely in the base. College production volume (target and workload share) is already inside the base score as model features — it isn't double-counted here. See methodology for how the career-value model is fit and validated.