Dynasty rookie board

The same career-value model that runs the big board, pointed at the only question a dynasty GM ever has: which rookies return fantasy production, and for how long. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends only — nobody starts a left tackle.

The 2023 class has been drafted — this board is the model’s pre-draft read, useful as a receipt against how the rookies actually landed.

Format1QB Superflex|Year2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022

1QB starts one quarterback, so even good QB prospects slide — QBs carry a 0.80 multiplier. Superflex starts two, which makes the position the scarcest asset in the format — QBs carry 1.30 instead. Nothing else changes between the two boards.

#	Player	Pos	College	Dynasty score	How it's built	Bust	Tier	Consensus
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	Ohio St.	109.1	99.1 × 1.10	1%	Elite	12
2	Michael Mayer	TE	Notre Dame	83.8	88.2 × 0.95	1%	Starter	16
3	Jordan Addison	WR	USC	83.5	75.9 × 1.10	7%	Starter	21
4	Bijan Robinson	RB	Texas	82.5	97.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	15%	Elite	5
5	Quentin Johnston	WR	TCU	81.9	74.4 × 1.10	0%	Starter	22
6	Zay Flowers	WR	Boston Col.	76.4	69.4 × 1.10	4%	Elite	26
7	Josh Downs	WR	North Carolina	72.8	66.2 × 1.10	4%	Elite	41
8	Bryce Young	QB	Alabama	72.8	91.0 × 0.80	16%	Elite	1
9	Dalton Kincaid	TE	Utah	72.3	76.1 × 0.95	10%	Starter	25
10	Anthony Richardson	QB	Florida	71.5	89.3 × 0.80	25%	Starter	9
11	Darnell Washington	TE	Georgia	71.3	75.0 × 0.95	15%	Role player	31
12	Jalin Hyatt	WR	Tennessee	71.2	64.7 × 1.10	1%	Role player	43
13	Luke Musgrave	TE	Oregon St.	70.0	73.7 × 0.95	12%	Starter	52
14	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	Alabama	69.7	82.0 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Elite	23
15	Tyler Scott	WR	Cincinnati	68.6	62.4 × 1.10	7%	Role player	70
16	C.J. Stroud	QB	Ohio St.	67.2	84.1 × 0.80	22%	Elite	3
17	Sam LaPorta	TE	Iowa	65.9	69.4 × 0.95	7%	Elite	56
18	Rashee Rice	WR	SMU	60.0	54.5 × 1.10	0%	Starter	81
19	Xavier Hutchinson	WR	Iowa St.	58.8	53.5 × 1.10	32%	Role player	90
20	A.T. Perry	WR	Wake Forest	58.6	53.3 × 1.10	1%	Role player	112
21	Will Levis	QB	Kentucky	57.1	71.4 × 0.80	20%	Starter	24
22	Marvin Mims	WR	Oklahoma	56.8	51.6 × 1.10	0%	Elite	71
23	Zach Charbonnet	RB	UCLA	56.6	67.6 × 0.85 × 0.98	22%	Role player	63
24	Hendon Hooker	QB	Tennessee	55.0	68.8 × 0.80	15%	Starter	48
25	Tucker Kraft	TE	South Dakota St.	54.5	57.4 × 0.95	25%	Starter	72
26	Tyjae Spears	RB	Tulane	53.4	62.8 × 0.85 × 1.00	22%	Role player	75
27	Tank Dell	WR	Houston	52.8	48.0 × 1.10	3%	Starter	89
28	Roschon Johnson	RB	Texas	51.8	61.7 × 0.85 × 0.99	19%	Role player	108
29	Kendre Miller	RB	TCU	51.5	60.6 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Role player	93
30	Jayden Reed	WR	Michigan St.	50.7	46.1 × 1.10	29%	Starter	103
31	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	Michigan	49.2	51.8 × 0.95	23%	Role player	137
32	Tank Bigsby	RB	Auburn	49.2	57.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Role player	122
33	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	Virginia	47.2	42.9 × 1.10	13%	Role player	139
34	Jonathan Mingo	WR	Mississippi	46.5	42.3 × 1.10	1%	Role player	69
35	De'Von Achane	RB	Texas A&M	45.0	52.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	7%	Starter	68
36	Cedric Tillman	WR	Tennessee	44.0	40.0 × 1.10	8%	Role player	62
37	Andrei Iosivas	WR	Princeton	42.8	38.9 × 1.10	30%	Starter	167
38	Kayshon Boutte	WR	LSU	42.6	38.7 × 1.10	23%	Role player	66
39	Israel Abanikanda	RB	Pittsburgh	41.7	49.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	10%	Role player	73
40	Clayton Tune	QB	Houston	39.9	49.8 × 0.80	16%	Role player	154
41	Puka Nacua	WR	BYU	39.9	36.2 × 1.10	50%	Elite	160
42	Deuce Vaughn	RB	Kansas St.	39.2	46.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	23%	Role player	151
43	Michael Wilson	WR	Stanford	38.8	35.3 × 1.10	31%	Starter	113
44	DeMario Douglas	WR	Liberty	38.1	34.7 × 1.10	48%	Role player	183
45	DeWayne McBride	RB	Ala-Birmingham	37.8	44.5 × 0.85 × 1.00	22%	Role player	144
46	Tre Tucker	WR	Cincinnati	37.4	34.0 × 1.10	36%	Starter	177
47	Ronnie Bell	WR	Michigan	35.4	32.2 × 1.10	20%	Role player	187
48	Parker Washington	WR	Penn St.	34.6	31.4 × 1.10	4%	Starter	149
49	Zach Evans	RB	Mississippi	34.6	40.8 × 0.85 × 1.00	14%	Bust	91
50	Zack Kuntz	TE	Old Dominion	34.4	36.2 × 0.95	49%	Bust	156
51	Justin Shorter	WR	Florida	34.4	31.3 × 1.10	17%	Bust	173
52	Grant Dubose	WR	Charlotte	34.0	30.9 × 1.10	21%	Bust	176
53	Eric Gray	RB	Oklahoma	33.9	43.1 × 0.85 × 0.93	27%	Role player	86
54	Chase Brown	RB	Illinois	33.9	42.2 × 0.85 × 0.94	13%	Role player	153
55	Brenton Strange	TE	Penn St.	33.6	35.3 × 0.95	16%	Role player	130
56	Chris Rodriguez	RB	Kentucky	33.5	40.6 × 0.85 × 0.97	6%	Role player	198
57	Charlie Jones	WR	Purdue	31.1	28.2 × 1.10	26%	Bust	138
58	Davis Allen	TE	Clemson	30.8	32.4 × 0.95	24%	Role player	78
59	Jalen Brooks	WR	South Carolina	30.6	27.8 × 1.10	37%	Bust	—
60	Jaren Hall	QB	BYU	29.8	37.2 × 0.80	31%	Role player	111
61	Kenny McIntosh	RB	Georgia	28.6	35.8 × 0.85 × 0.94	49%	Bust	95
62	Lew Nichols	RB	Central Michigan	26.2	30.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	63%	Bust	—
63	Jake Haener	QB	Fresno St.	26.0	32.5 × 0.80	26%	Role player	125
64	Derius Davis	WR	TCU	25.5	23.2 × 1.10	19%	Elite	—
65	Will Mallory	TE	Miami (FL)	25.4	26.7 × 0.95	39%	Role player	127
66	Antoine Green	WR	North Carolina	25.1	22.8 × 1.10	35%	Bust	217
67	Max Duggan	QB	TCU	24.5	30.6 × 0.80	27%	—	—
68	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	QB	UCLA	24.2	30.2 × 0.80	28%	Role player	124
69	Colton Dowell	WR	UT Martin	23.9	21.8 × 1.10	9%	Bust	—
70	Elijah Higgins	WR	Stanford	23.9	21.8 × 1.10	30%	Role player	210
71	Brayden Willis	TE	Oklahoma	23.7	25.0 × 0.95	23%	Bust	—
72	Evan Hull	RB	Northwestern	23.6	28.5 × 0.85 × 0.97	14%	Bust	182
73	Stetson Bennett	QB	Georgia	23.0	28.7 × 0.80	30%	Bust	101
74	Cameron Latu	TE	Alabama	21.9	23.1 × 0.95	31%	Starter	186
75	Sean Clifford	QB	Penn St.	21.7	27.1 × 0.80	25%	Role player	—
76	Payne Durham	TE	Purdue	21.7	22.9 × 0.95	40%	Role player	196
77	Trey Palmer	WR	Nebraska	20.4	18.5 × 1.10	50%	Role player	76
78	Josh Whyle	TE	Cincinnati	17.5	18.4 × 0.95	28%	Role player	190
79	Tanner McKee	QB	Stanford	17.1	21.4 × 0.80	46%	Bust	141
80	Aidan O'Connell	QB	Purdue	14.2	17.7 × 0.80	32%	Starter	195

How this differs from the big board

Built from the same models as the big board — here's exactly how the lens differs. The base is the served career-value model score, untouched. On top of it sit three documented adjustments, all shown per player in the table:

Dynasty score = model score × position multiplier (1QB) × RB age multiplier

Position: QB ×0.80, RB ×0.85, WR ×1.10, TE ×0.95 — QB scarcity by format, the RB career-length discount, the WR longevity premium, the TE slow-onboarding haircut.
RB age cliff: RB only: 1.00 at age 22 or younger at draft, minus 0.05 per year older, floor 0.85. When we don't have a player's age on file, no adjustment is applied and the row says so.
Tier reads: shown only where the tier model itself stands behind them; when it isn't confident, you get a dash, not a guess.

The multipliers are round numbers encoding dynasty-market convention (QB scarcity by format, the RB age cliff, WR longevity, the TE year-3 breakout) — convention, not Draftanomics research. The model signal is entirely in the base. College production volume (target and workload share) is already inside the base score as model features — it isn't double-counted here. See methodology for how the career-value model is fit and validated.