Dynasty rookie board

The same career-value model that runs the big board, pointed at the only question a dynasty GM ever has: which rookies return fantasy production, and for how long. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends only — nobody starts a left tackle.

The 2025 class has been drafted — this board is the model’s pre-draft read, useful as a receipt against how the rookies actually landed.

Format1QB Superflex|Year2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022

1QB starts one quarterback, so even good QB prospects slide — QBs carry a 0.80 multiplier. Superflex starts two, which makes the position the scarcest asset in the format — QBs carry 1.30 instead. Nothing else changes between the two boards.

#	Player	Pos	College	Dynasty score	How it's built	Bust	Tier	Consensus
1	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	Arizona	93.4	84.9 × 1.10	7%	Elite	11
2	Travis Hunter	WR	Colorado	88.9	80.8 × 1.10	5%	Elite	1
3	Emeka Egbuka	WR	Ohio St.	84.3	76.7 × 1.10	9%	Starter	21
4	Luther Burden	WR	Missouri	84.0	76.4 × 1.10	0%	Starter	27
5	Tyler Warren	TE	Penn St.	82.0	86.3 × 0.95	6%	Elite	7
6	Ashton Jeanty	RB	Boise St.	80.9	95.2 × 0.85 × 1.00	10%	Elite	3
7	Jayden Higgins	WR	Iowa St.	75.5	68.6 × 1.10	3%	Starter	47
8	Jaylin Noel	WR	Iowa St.	74.7	67.9 × 1.10	16%	Starter	56
9	Kyle Williams	WR	Washington St.	74.4	67.6 × 1.10	21%	Starter	98
10	Colston Loveland	TE	Michigan	74.1	78.0 × 0.95	5%	Elite	13
11	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	Ohio St.	73.6	88.9 × 0.85 × 0.97	14%	Starter	41
12	Jalen Royals	WR	Utah St.	73.5	66.8 × 1.10	27%	Starter	84
13	Omarion Hampton	RB	North Carolina	70.6	83.5 × 0.85 × 0.99	13%	Starter	28
14	Tre Harris	WR	Mississippi	70.4	64.0 × 1.10	0%	Starter	65
15	Mason Taylor	TE	LSU	69.6	73.3 × 0.95	21%	Starter	50
16	Matthew Golden	WR	Texas	68.9	62.6 × 1.10	0%	Starter	25
17	Elic Ayomanor	WR	Stanford	67.9	61.7 × 1.10	13%	Starter	81
18	Cam Ward	QB	Miami (FL)	67.5	84.4 × 0.80	3%	Elite	9
19	Tory Horton	WR	Colorado St.	65.2	59.3 × 1.10	18%	Starter	110
20	Harold Fannin	TE	Bowling Green	62.9	66.2 × 0.95	5%	Starter	97
21	Tai Felton	WR	Maryland	61.5	55.9 × 1.10	21%	Starter	112
22	Dylan Sampson	RB	Tennessee	60.8	71.6 × 0.85 × 1.00	14%	Starter	123
23	Quinshon Judkins	RB	Ohio St.	60.7	71.4 × 0.85 × 1.00	11%	Starter	53
24	Jack Bech	WR	TCU	58.4	53.1 × 1.10	9%	Starter	66
25	Savion Williams	WR	TCU	57.9	52.7 × 1.10	26%	Starter	165
26	Jaylin Lane	WR	Virginia Tech	56.8	51.7 × 1.10	17%	Starter	42
27	Pat Bryant	WR	Illinois	55.5	50.5 × 1.10	21%	Starter	156
28	Jaxson Dart	QB	Mississippi	52.6	65.7 × 0.80	4%	Starter	55
29	Elijah Arroyo	TE	Miami (FL)	52.3	55.1 × 0.95	23%	Starter	59
30	Shedeur Sanders	QB	Colorado	51.9	64.9 × 0.80	14%	Starter	24
31	Junior Bergen	WR	Montana	51.0	46.4 × 1.10	24%	Elite	—
32	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	Virginia Tech	50.0	59.4 × 0.85 × 0.99	24%	Starter	111
33	Kaleb Johnson	RB	Iowa	49.5	58.3 × 0.85 × 1.00	16%	Starter	61
34	Chimere Dike	WR	Florida	48.8	44.4 × 1.10	25%	Starter	—
35	Terrance Ferguson	TE	Oregon	47.0	49.5 × 0.95	25%	Starter	107
36	Devin Neal	RB	Kansas	44.9	52.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	17%	Starter	147
37	Cam Skattebo	RB	Arizona St.	44.9	56.2 × 0.85 × 0.94	16%	Starter	150
38	Tez Johnson	WR	Oregon	44.7	40.6 × 1.10	8%	Starter	159
39	Damien Martinez	RB	Miami (FL)	44.1	51.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	19%	Starter	168
40	DJ Giddens	RB	Kansas St.	44.0	51.8 × 0.85 × 1.00	25%	Starter	71
41	Jordan James	RB	Oregon	43.8	51.5 × 0.85 × 1.00	22%	Starter	137
42	Jaydon Blue	RB	Texas	42.2	49.7 × 0.85 × 1.00	59%	Starter	153
43	RJ Harvey	RB	Central Florida	41.8	55.4 × 0.85 × 0.89	14%	Starter	124
44	Jalen Milroe	QB	Alabama	40.5	50.6 × 0.80	22%	Starter	64
45	LeQuint Allen	RB	Syracuse	38.3	45.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	63%	Starter	117
46	Brashard Smith	RB	SMU	37.7	44.5 × 0.85 × 1.00	50%	Role player	—
47	Tyler Shough	QB	Louisville	35.7	44.6 × 0.80	27%	Starter	103
48	Gunnar Helm	TE	Texas	32.1	33.8 × 0.95	32%	Starter	85
49	Trevor Etienne	RB	Georgia	32.0	37.6 × 0.85 × 1.00	26%	Starter	162
50	Jordan Watkins	WR	Mississippi	31.9	29.0 × 1.10	18%	Elite	—
51	Mitchell Evans	TE	Notre Dame	31.9	33.6 × 0.95	25%	Starter	152
52	Dominic Lovett	WR	Georgia	30.2	27.4 × 1.10	23%	Starter	—
53	Quinn Ewers	QB	Texas	30.1	37.6 × 0.80	38%	Starter	131
54	Caleb Lohner	TE	Utah	28.9	30.4 × 0.95	29%	Starter	—
55	Kyle McCord	QB	Syracuse	28.8	36.0 × 0.80	35%	Starter	94
56	LaJohntay Wester	WR	Colorado	28.4	25.8 × 1.10	26%	Elite	—
57	Ricky White	WR	UNLV	28.3	25.8 × 1.10	25%	Starter	—
58	Jimmy Horn	WR	Colorado	28.1	25.6 × 1.10	27%	Elite	—
59	Dont'e Thornton	WR	Tennessee	28.1	25.6 × 1.10	7%	Elite	—
60	Moliki Matavao	TE	UCLA	28.0	29.4 × 0.95	38%	Starter	—
61	Jackson Hawes	TE	Georgia Tech	27.9	29.4 × 0.95	27%	Starter	—
62	Konata Mumpfield	WR	Pittsburgh	27.5	25.0 × 1.10	23%	Elite	—
63	Arian Smith	WR	Georgia	26.7	24.2 × 1.10	21%	Starter	—
64	Isaac TeSlaa	WR	Arkansas	26.6	24.2 × 1.10	18%	Starter	154
65	Oronde Gadsden II	TE	Syracuse	26.4	27.8 × 0.95	19%	Starter	133
66	Woody Marks	RB	USC	26.1	34.8 × 0.85 × 0.88	20%	Starter	—
67	Phil Mafah	RB	Clemson	25.0	30.1 × 0.85 × 0.97	16%	Starter	—
68	Luke Lachey	TE	Iowa	24.9	26.2 × 0.95	34%	Starter	—
69	Jarquez Hunter	RB	Auburn	24.7	29.6 × 0.85 × 0.98	66%	Starter	60
70	Thomas Fidone	TE	Nebraska	24.3	25.5 × 0.95	35%	Starter	—
71	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	Auburn	23.9	21.7 × 1.10	18%	Starter	—
72	Ollie Gordon	RB	Oklahoma St.	23.9	28.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	65%	Starter	82
73	Will Howard	QB	Ohio St.	23.5	29.4 × 0.80	31%	Starter	83
74	Kalel Mullings	RB	Michigan	22.4	27.1 × 0.85 × 0.97	24%	Starter	—
75	Riley Leonard	QB	Notre Dame	22.4	28.0 × 0.80	32%	—	—
76	Cam Miller	QB	North Dakota St.	22.4	28.0 × 0.80	30%	Starter	164
77	Kyle Monangai	RB	Rutgers	22.3	27.4 × 0.85 × 0.96	22%	Role player	—
78	Gavin Bartholomew	TE	Pittsburgh	21.5	22.7 × 0.95	13%	Starter	—
79	Dillon Gabriel	QB	Oregon	20.8	26.0 × 0.80	27%	—	—
80	Tahj Brooks	RB	Texas Tech	20.6	25.5 × 0.85 × 0.95	14%	Starter	—
81	Graham Mertz	QB	Florida	18.9	23.6 × 0.80	36%	—	—
82	Tommy Mellott	QB	Montana St.	18.0	22.5 × 0.80	28%	—	—
83	Kurtis Rourke	QB	Indiana	17.1	21.3 × 0.80	24%	—	—
84	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	Arizona	16.1	21.1 × 0.85 × 0.90	11%	Elite	—
85	Robbie Ouzts	TE	Alabama	10.4	10.9 × 0.95	32%	Starter	—

How this differs from the big board

Built from the same models as the big board — here's exactly how the lens differs. The base is the served career-value model score, untouched. On top of it sit three documented adjustments, all shown per player in the table:

Dynasty score = model score × position multiplier (1QB) × RB age multiplier

Position: QB ×0.80, RB ×0.85, WR ×1.10, TE ×0.95 — QB scarcity by format, the RB career-length discount, the WR longevity premium, the TE slow-onboarding haircut.
RB age cliff: RB only: 1.00 at age 22 or younger at draft, minus 0.05 per year older, floor 0.85. When we don't have a player's age on file, no adjustment is applied and the row says so.
Tier reads: shown only where the tier model itself stands behind them; when it isn't confident, you get a dash, not a guess.

The multipliers are round numbers encoding dynasty-market convention (QB scarcity by format, the RB age cliff, WR longevity, the TE year-3 breakout) — convention, not Draftanomics research. The model signal is entirely in the base. College production volume (target and workload share) is already inside the base score as model features — it isn't double-counted here. See methodology for how the career-value model is fit and validated.