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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2017 board/
  3. Larry Ogunjobi
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Larry Ogunjobi
2017 NFL Draft prospect

Larry Ogunjobi

DT·Charlotte·American Athletic
age 22.9

On the live board, bust risk sits at 35% and the realistic range is No. 30 to No. 207.

86rank#86$1.4MCompRakeem Nunez-Roches
American Athletic→ CLE's 2017 class
Print sheet
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Larry Ogunjobi at pick #86; he was actually picked #65 by CLE. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.2 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $16M/yr.

Larry OgunjobiDTDraftanomics #86
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProductionRisk3Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Speculative
#86DT·Charlotte

The league moved faster than our board — CLE took him at No. 65, 21 picks ahead of our No. 86 grade. His career is settling that argument now.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk3

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Larry Ogunjobi at #86 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and CLE took him at No. 65, 21 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 35%, near the position baseline. The room had him #124 pre-draft; our board was 38 spots higher.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 3, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#86
Day 2range #30–#207 · volatile
Bust Probability?
35%
1.30× EDGE / DL / LB class avg (27%)
above class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#65
CLE · Rd 3
Year 1 Outcome?
5.2
86% snap share
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc

Too early to project a career arc.

No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.

Projected second contract
$16.2M($6.9M–$25.5M)/yr model
Top-tier starter DT money
Bust risk
35%
from a model with a graded track record at this positionsecond opinion: 1 of 4 closest historical comps busted (25%)
Public-board consensus

18 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Model lower than NFL
Gap (actual − predicted)
-21

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: his charted run def grade career avg and how many boards rank him top-100. Working against him: his charted average depth of target allowed, career avg.

School strength
-0.02
Age
-0.02

Model read

Model grade
0.56 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
3

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
4-tier outlook?

Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.

Model market value
$16.2M
($6.9M – $25.5M)
top-third at position
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Elevated risk — watch the flags

Risk score24· WATCH

Everything that could go wrong with Larry Ogunjobi, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Bust probability35%
    Elevated bust risk — the profile carries one-year-wonder, age, or athleticism red flags.
  • Predicted-pick range#30–207 · 177-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Age22.9 yrs
    Within the typical DT draft-age band (~24.5).
  • Public-board coverage18 sources
    Plenty of public boards have a read — the grade is well corroborated.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
No athletic testing
medium
No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Small-school competition
medium
School SP+ rating -20.9 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #123 (1=hardest).
Reasons to buy
Strong comp group
high
4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Tyeler Davison, Rodney Gunter (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at EDGE / DL / LB, age, and recent capital invested.

NE#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters10Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
KC#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NO#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
TB#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters10Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
SF#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior EDGE / DL / LB prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT2015#217
↑20 pts
Starter1.16
Tyeler DavisonDT2015#154
↑6 pts
Franchise1.53
Rodney GunterDT2015#116
↓9 pts
Starter1.76
Xavier CooperDT2015#96
→0 pts
Franchise1.78
Kristjan SokoliDT2015#214no dataTBD2.09
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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