On the live board, bust risk sits at 31% and the realistic range is No. 117 to No. 251.
The model graded Tyler Bass at pick #200; he was actually picked #188 by BUF. 5 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $5.1M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (3% recent-3, 7% peak across 5 seasons).
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
We had him No. 200 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — BUF took him at No. 188. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Tyler Bass at #200 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and BUF took him at No. 188. Bust risk projects at 31%, near the position baseline.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: hS recruit rating. Working against him: age and how many boards rank him top-100.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Tyler Bass, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Closest historical matches among prior Specialists prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooke | P | 2018 | #247 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.62 |
| Johnny Townsend | P | 2018 | #173 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.77 |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | 2017 | #224 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.02 |
| Jason Sanders | K | 2018 | #229 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.09 |
| Riley Dixon | P | 2016 | #228 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.15 |
Roster-based need returns once the 2019 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 200, and which of them already spent premium capital at Specialists in the 2019 draft.
Gold means no recent premium investment at Specialists — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.