The 2019 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 254 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Maxx Crosby

EDGE · pick 106 (OAK, 2019)

Actually went 106th to OAK.

83 Career Score · 5 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Maxx Crosby

EDGE · pick 106 (OAK, 2019)

Taken 106th; career value ranks 1st in the class.

83 Career Score · 5 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

Biggest bust

Dwayne Haskins

QB · pick 15 (WAS, 2019)

Pick 15 returned a 17 Career Score over 16 games.

17 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Kaleb McGary outplayed his slot by 26 spots, while Dwayne Haskins fell 168.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	ARI	Kyler Murray	QB	71	2	0	5	17	-16
2	SFO	Nick Bosa	EDGE	82	5	1	5	2	0
3	NYJ	Quinnen Williams	DT	73	4	1	6	11	-8
4	OAK	Clelin Ferrell	EDGE	48	0	0	4	79	-75
5	TAM	Devin White	LB	73	1	0	6	12	-7
6	NYG	Daniel Jones	QB	65	0	0	6	35	-29
7	JAX	Josh Hines-Allen	LB	75	2	0	6	8	-1
8	DET	T.J. Hockenson	TE	64	2	0	4	39	-31
9	BUF	Ed Oliver	DT	63	0	0	5	43	-34
10	PIT	Devin Bush Jr.	LB	57	0	0	4	54	-44
11	CIN	Jonah Williams	G	49	0	0	5	74	-63
12	GNB	Rashan Gary	LB	64	1	0	5	38	-26
13	MIA	Christian Wilkins	DT	69	0	0	5	20	-7
14	ATL	Chris Lindstrom	G	77	4	0	6	3	+11
15	WAS	Dwayne Haskins	QB	17	0	0	0	183	-168
16	CAR	Brian Burns	EDGE	75	3	0	6	7	+9
17	NYG	Dexter Lawrence	DT	73	3	0	6	10	+7
18	MIN	Garrett Bradbury	C	69	0	0	7	21	-3
19	TEN	Jeffery Simmons	DT	68	4	1	7	27	-8
20	DEN	Noah Fant	TE	56	0	0	5	59	-39
21	GNB	Darnell Savage Jr.	S	68	0	0	6	25	-4
22	PHI	Andre Dillard	OT	42	0	0	1	96	-74
23	HOU	Tytus Howard	OT	67	0	0	6	31	-8
24	OAK	Josh Jacobs	RB	66	3	1	7	33	-9
25	BAL	Marquise Brown	WR	57	0	0	4	58	-33
26	WAS	Montez Sweat	EDGE	70	1	0	6	18	+8
27	OAK	Johnathan Abram	S	43	0	0	2	94	-67
28	LAC	Jerry Tillery	DT	54	0	0	2	66	-38
29	SEA	L.J. Collier	EDGE	35	0	0	2	111	-82
30	NYG	Deandre Baker	CB	21	0	0	1	157	-127
31	ATL	Kaleb McGary	OT	76	0	0	6	5	+26
32	NWE	N'Keal Harry	WR	32	0	0	1	122	-90

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2019 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Maxx Crosby	EDGE	106	OAK	83	5	0	110
2	Nick Bosa	EDGE	2	SFO	82	5	1	85
3	Chris Lindstrom	G	14	ATL	77	4	0	105
4	Byron Murphy	CB	33	ARI	76	1	0	104
5	Kaleb McGary	OT	31	ATL	76	0	0	93
6	A.J. Brown	WR	51	TEN	75	3	0	105
7	Brian Burns	EDGE	16	CAR	75	3	0	114
8	Josh Hines-Allen	LB	7	JAX	75	2	0	107
9	Jawaan Taylor	OT	35	JAX	74	0	0	111
10	Dexter Lawrence	DT	17	NYG	73	3	0	109
11	Quinnen Williams	DT	3	NYJ	73	4	1	105
12	Devin White	LB	5	TAM	73	1	0	100
13	Terry McLaurin	WR	76	WAS	72	2	0	107
14	Bobby Okereke	LB	89	IND	72	0	0	110
15	Elgton Jenkins	C	44	GNB	72	2	0	96
16	Diontae Johnson	WR	66	PIT	71	1	0	89
17	Kyler Murray	QB	1	ARI	71	2	0	87
18	Montez Sweat	EDGE	26	WAS	70	1	0	109
19	Connor McGovern	G	90	DAL	69	1	0	94
20	Christian Wilkins	DT	13	MIA	69	0	0	86
21	Garrett Bradbury	C	18	MIN	69	0	0	105
22	D.K. Metcalf	WR	64	SEA	69	2	0	112
23	Julian Love	CB	108	NYG	68	1	0	106
24	Deebo Samuel	WR	36	SFO	68	1	1	97
25	Darnell Savage Jr.	S	21	GNB	68	0	0	97
26	Erik McCoy	C	48	NOR	68	2	0	88
27	Jeffery Simmons	DT	19	TEN	68	4	1	99
28	Nate Davis	G	82	TEN	68	0	0	71
29	Juan Thornhill	S	63	KAN	67	0	0	97
30	Jamel Dean	CB	94	TAM	67	0	0	96
31	Tytus Howard	OT	23	HOU	67	0	0	93
32	Germaine Pratt	LB	72	CIN	66	0	0	112

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

106
Maxx CrosbyEDGE · OAK
Taken 106th; career value ranks 1st in the class.
51
A.J. BrownWR · TEN
Taken 51st; career value ranks 6th in the class.
33
Byron MurphyCB · ARI
Taken 33rd; career value ranks 4th in the class.
89
Bobby OkerekeLB · IND
Taken 89th; career value ranks 14th in the class.
76
Terry McLaurinWR · WAS
Taken 76th; career value ranks 13th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

15
Dwayne HaskinsQB · WAS
Pick 15 returned a 17 Career Score over 16 games.
30
Deandre BakerCB · NYG
Pick 30 returned a 21 Career Score over 26 games.
4
Clelin FerrellEDGE · OAK
Pick 4 returned a 48 Career Score over 98 games.
37
Greg LittleOT · CAR
Pick 37 returned a 16 Career Score over 31 games.
11
Jonah WilliamsG · CIN
Pick 11 returned a 49 Career Score over 74 games.

Every team's 2019 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.