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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Derrius Guice
age 20.9 · 5'10" · 224 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 13% and the realistic range is No. 4 to No. 52.
rank#1$12.2MCompEzekiel Elliott
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Derrius Guice at pick #1; he was actually picked #59 by WAS. 1 NFL season in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 10.0 of 20 per season). So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 13%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 4% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $12M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#12nd-deal AAV at this slot$12.2M/yrRB·LSU
We had him No. 1 on draft night; WAS didn't call his name until No. 59 — a 58-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports