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rank#125$1.1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Bo Scarbrough at pick #125; he was actually picked #236 by DAL. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 10.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.5M a year. So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 1%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 4% peak across 2 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#125RB·Alabama
We had him No. 125 on draft night; DAL didn't call his name until No. 236 — a 111-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Bo Scarbrough at #125 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 236, 111 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 84% — well above the position median; the model is flagging this as a high-variance pick. The room had him #81 pre-draft; our board sat 44 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports