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2018 NFL Draft prospect
Josh Allen
age 21.9 · 6'5" · 237 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 10% and the realistic range is No. 27 to No. 157.
rank#53CompCarson Wentz
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Josh Allen at pick #53; he was actually picked #7 by BUF. 8 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 9.7 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $43.0M a year. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 70% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. In the NFL he's playing at a Pro-Bowl level — 40% NFL grade across his last 3 seasons, peaking at 88%. Model predicted $71M/yr; actual $43M (over by $28M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#53QB·Wyoming
The league moved faster than our board — BUF took him at No. 7, 46 picks ahead of our No. 53 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production7
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports