Refreshed just now
rank#218
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Clayton Thorson at pick #218; he was actually picked #167 by PHI. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#218QB·Northwestern
The league moved faster than our board — PHI took him at No. 167, 51 picks ahead of our No. 218 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Clayton Thorson at #218 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and PHI took him at No. 167, 51 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 44%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #156 pre-draft; our board sat 62 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports