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2020 NFL Draft prospect
Isaiah Simmons
age 21.7 · 6'4" · 238 lb
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Simmons (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#52, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Genard Avery (Contributor), Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Peter Kalambayi. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 sits within 6 spots of the room's #4 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
rank#10$6.7MCompJoel Iyiegbuniwe
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Isaiah Simmons at pick #10; he was actually picked #8 by ARI. 6 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.4 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $5.0M a year. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 51% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 8% peak across 5 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $8M/yr, actual was $5M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#102nd-deal AAV at this slot$6.7M/yrLB·Clemson
We had him No. 10 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — ARI took him at No. 8. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production5
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports