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2020 NFL Draft prospect
CeeDee Lamb
age 21.0 · 6'2" · 198 lb
Draftanomics projects CeeDee Lamb (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: James Washington (Contributor), Corey Davis (Bust), Tre'Quan Smith (Starter). Ceiling is Laquon Treadwell (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #2 sits within 6 spots of the room's #8 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
rank#2$11.7MCompJames Washington
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded CeeDee Lamb at pick #2; he was actually picked #17 by DAL. 6 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 9.5 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $34.0M a year. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 60% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. His NFL play has graded as a solid starter (28% recent-3, 83% peak across 5 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $33M/yr, actual was $34M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#22nd-deal AAV at this slot$11.7M/yrWR·Oklahoma
We had him No. 2 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — DAL took him at No. 17. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production5
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports