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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2020 board/
  3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2020 NFL Draft prospect

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB·LSU·SEC
age 21.0 · 5'7" · 207 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 18% and the realistic range is No. 10 to No. 58.

7rank#7$7.7MCompJoe Mixon
SEC→ KAN's 2020 class
Print sheet
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Clyde Edwards-Helaire at pick #7; he was actually picked #32 by KAN. 6 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.7 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.7M a year. So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 10% peak across 5 seasons). Model predicted $8M/yr; actual $2M (over by $6M).

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBDraftanomics #7
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction5Risk4Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
High conviction
#72nd-deal AAV at this slot$7.7M/yrRB·LSU

We had him No. 7 on draft night; KAN didn't call his name until No. 32 — a 25-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production5

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk4

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Clyde Edwards-Helaire at #7 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and KAN took him at No. 32, 25 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 18%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #41 pre-draft; our board was 34 spots higher.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#7
1st Roundrange #10–#58 · volatile
Bust Probability?
18%
0.86× RB / WR / TE class avg (21%)
≈ class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#32
KAN · Rd 1
Career Outcome · 6 seasons?
52.0
8.7 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
14%
Bust
1%
Starter
38%
Role
48%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$1.7M/yr
1 years, $2M total.
We projected $7.7M/yr on draft night — richer than the market paid.
Bust risk
0%
comp-based — 0 of 5 closest comps busted
Model says: 18%⚠ the RB / WR / TE bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

26 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
MODEL HIT — we saw it, NFL didn't (career avg over 6 seasons)
Gap (actual − predicted)
+25

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: how many boards rank him top-100, his charted blitz btt rate career avg, and sOS-weighted production. Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.

Schedule-adjusted production
+0.02
HS recruit rating
+0.02
College production
+0.02

Model read

Model grade
0.89 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
1

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 10
Below-average play
Across 5 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Role
Model expects a depth / rotational role
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
14%
Starter
38%
Role
48%
Bust
1%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Model market value
$7.7M
($1.6M – $13.7M)
rotational / depth
Actual: $1.7M(+$6.0M)
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Risk profile is clean

Risk score17· CLEAN

Everything that could go wrong with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Predicted-pick range#10–58 · 48-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability18%
    Modest bust risk — normal territory for the position.
  • Age21.0 yrs
    Within the typical RB draft-age band (~22.5).
  • Public-board coverage26 sources
    Plenty of public boards have a read — the grade is well corroborated.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Average-to-below athletic profile
medium
RAS 4.51 (45th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Consensus skeptic
high
28 boards place him at mean rank #42; model has him #7 — a 35-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Comp group bust rate
high
3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Derrius Guice. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Negative per-play impact
medium
PPA avg_all 0.353 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Reasons to buy
No opportunity flags raised.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.

NO#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NE#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters10Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
GB#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters11Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
CLE#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy
OAK#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters11Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Joe MixonRB2017#48
→0 pts
Bust1.11
Ezekiel ElliottRB2016#4
→1 pts
Starter1.17
Dalvin CookRB2017#41
→0 pts
Bust1.33
Derrick HenryRB2016#45
→0 pts
Starter1.53
Derrius GuiceRB2018#59
→0 pts
Bust1.69
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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