AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KJ Bolden | S | Georgia | 95% | $18.6M-$28.4M | — | — |
| 2 | Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame | 97% | $14.8M-$22.6M | — | — |
| 3 | Kelley Jones | S | Mississippi State | 95% | $12.8M-$19.6M | — | — |
| 4 | Koi Perich | S | Oregon | 91% | $12.9M-$19.7M | — | — |
| 5 | OJ Frederique Jr. | CB | Miami | 97% | $11.1M-$16.9M | — | — |
| 6 | Brauntae Johnson | S | Notre Dame | 97% | $10.8M-$16.5M | — | — |
| 7 | Xavier Scott | CB | Illinois | 97% | $9.8M-$15.0M | — | — |
| 8 | Dashawn Spears | S | LSU | 89% | $9.7M-$14.8M | — | — |
| 9 | Chris Peal | CB | Syracuse | 97% | $7.6M-$11.6M | — | — |
| 10 | Brice Pollock | CB | Texas Tech | 97% | $7.3M-$11.2M | — | — |
| 11 | Adon Shuler | S | Notre Dame | 80% | $8.8M-$13.5M | — | — |
| 12 | Jontez Williams | CB | USC | 69% | $10.1M-$15.5M | — | — |
| 13 | Jaylen McClain | S | Ohio State | 96% | $7.0M-$10.7M | — | — |
| 14 | Jelani McDonald | CB | Texas | 73% | $9.0M-$13.8M | — | — |
| 15 | Ashton Hampton | S | Clemson | 81% | $7.8M-$11.9M | — | — |
| 16 | Zabien Brown | CB | Alabama | 97% | $5.9M-$9.0M | — | — |
| 17 | Ellis Robinson IV | CB | Georgia | 97% | $5.5M-$8.4M | — | — |
| 18 | Reggie Bush II | S | Baylor | — | $7.4M-$11.4M | — | — |
| 19 | A.J. Harris | CB | Indiana | 31% | $7.8M-$11.9M | — | — |
| 20 | David Moore | CB | Arkansas State | — | $3.0M-$4.6M | — | — |
| 21 | Elijah Lee | CB | Georgia Military College Prep | — | $2.8M-$4.4M | — | — |
| 22 | Jordan Davis | CB | Ball State | — | $2.8M-$4.2M | — | — |
| 23 | Eddie Pleasant III | CB | Marshall | — | $2.7M-$4.2M | — | — |
| 24 | Brandon Jones | S | UTEP | — | $2.7M-$4.1M | — | — |
| 25 | Jelani McLaughlin | S | San Diego State | 89% | $2.0M-$3.1M | — | — |
| 26 | Xavier Smith | S | UTEP | — | $2.5M-$3.8M | — | — |
| 27 | Jordan Matthews | CB | Vanderbilt | — | $2.5M-$3.8M | — | — |
| 28 | Isaiah Thomas | S | Miami | — | $2.3M-$3.5M | — | — |
| 29 | Tyler Scott | CB | Auburn | — | $2.1M-$3.2M | — | — |
| 30 | AJ Brown | S | Georgia Southern | — | $1.9M-$3.0M | — | — |
| 31 | Corey Myrick | CB | Clemson | 22% | $5.1M-$7.8M | — | — |
| 32 | Cam Johnson | CB | Virginia Tech | 8% | $9.6M-$14.7M | — | — |
| 33 | Jermaine Mathews Jr. | CB | Ohio State | 11% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 34 | Tony Mathis | S | Ohio | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 35 | Dev'ion Reynolds | CB | Northern Illinois | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 36 | Chris Boykins | S | Old Dominion | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 37 | Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine | CB | Florida International | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 38 | Braedyn Moore | CB | Toledo | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 39 | Kamari Wilson | S | West Virginia | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 40 | CJ Miles Jr. | CB | Western Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 41 | Jshawn Frausto-Ramos | CB | Washington State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 42 | Devin Robinson | S | Tulsa | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 43 | Landon Hale | S | Florida International | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 44 | Tawfiq Byard | S | Texas A&M | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 45 | Jarvis Boatwright Jr. | S | Florida State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 46 | Jeilani Davis | S | Montana | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 47 | Ethon Cole | S | Duquesne | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 48 | Charles Lester III | CB | Florida State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 49 | Dijon Johnson | S | Florida | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 50 | Martell Hughes | S | Arizona State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 51 | Quentin Ajiero | CB | Duke | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 52 | Josh Dixon | CB | Wyoming | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 53 | Chris Bracy | S | Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 54 | Terhyon Nichols | CB | Kentucky | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 55 | La'Varis Stanford | CB | Western Michigan | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 56 | Damani Maxson | S | Prairie View A&M | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 57 | Chapman Lewis | S | Utah State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 58 | Imari Conley | CB | San José State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 59 | Mehki Flowers | CB | Akron | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 60 | Jaylen Jones | S | Army | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 61 | Ryan Yaites | S | TCU | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 62 | Bernard Causey III | CB | Wake Forest | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 63 | Marquis Gallegos | S | USC | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 64 | Rayquan Adkins | CB | James Madison | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 65 | Cameron Epps | CB | Oklahoma State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 66 | Ian Bell | CB | Wyoming | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 67 | Ken Willis | CB | James Madison | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 68 | Jaden Pettway | S | UT-Rio Grande Valley | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 69 | Jamarion Clark | CB | Rice | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 70 | Tyrin Woodby | S | West Virginia | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 71 | Paul Mencke Jr. | S | Washington | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 72 | Kamani Jackson | CB | Washington State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 73 | Tayvon Nelson | CB | Marshall | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 74 | Chris Graves Jr. | CB | Miami | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 75 | Fatu Mukuba | S | Sam Houston | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 76 | Tayshawn Banks | CB | Pittsburgh | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 77 | Jaden Harris | CB | Kansas | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 78 | Jordan Bell | S | Memphis | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 79 | Jon Mitchell | CB | Georgia Tech | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 80 | Bryce Grays | S | UTSA | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 81 | Collin Gill | CB | Charlotte | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 82 | Jay Crawford | CB | Ole Miss | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 83 | Keenan McCaddy | S | Garden City C.C. | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 84 | Makari Vickers | S | Colorado | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 85 | Kalen Woods | S | New Mexico | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 86 | Trevor Hardy | S | Austin Peay | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 87 | Kelvin Hill | CB | Georgia Tech | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 88 | Jackson Barton | CB | Nevada | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 89 | Karon Weary | S | South Alabama | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 90 | Luke Williams | CB | Austin Peay | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 91 | Josiah Cox | S | San Diego State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 92 | Kejuan Bullard | CB | San José State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 93 | Ahkhari Johnson | CB | Louisiana Tech | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 94 | JQ Hardaway | S | Kentucky | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 95 | Jalil Tucker | CB | San Diego State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 96 | Ryan Turner | CB | Purdue | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 97 | Vicari Swain | CB | South Carolina | 10% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 98 | Tyler Brown | S | Iowa | 45% | $1.2M-$1.8M | — | — |
| 99 | Christian Gray | CB | Notre Dame | 10% | $4.3M-$6.7M | — | — |
| 100 | Bray Hubbard | CB | Alabama | 6% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.