On the live board, bust risk sits at 34% and the realistic range is No. 65 to No. 213.
Marquise Lightfoot is a lean, undersized EDGE at 6-foot-4, 212 pounds, and the only season of production on file, 2025, shows a player still finding his level: 25 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. The model's career-value board has him at Number 168 in the 2027 class, 21 spots below the consensus mean of Number 147 — a model-lower read that puts Draftanomics out of step with the room's higher opinion of him.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Both of the model's reads put him in Day-3 / priority-free-agent range. If the public boards are higher, the model is the one doing the fading — check the dossier for what it isn't seeing.
Draftanomics ranks Marquise Lightfoot at #168 overall — a Day 3 grade. Bust risk projects at 34%, near the position baseline. Public consensus has him #159; Draftanomics's board is 9 spots lower — the model sees a gap the room doesn't.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
1 public board track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by production trajectory, how many boards rank him top-100, and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Marquise Lightfoot, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Roster-based need returns once the 2026 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 168, and which of them already spent premium capital at EDGE / DL / LB in the 2026 draft.
Gold means no recent premium investment at EDGE / DL / LB — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.