The 2018 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 256 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Fred Warner

OLB · pick 70 (SFO, 2018)

Actually went 70th to SFO.

95 Career Score · 4 Pro Bowls · 4 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Fred Warner

OLB · pick 70 (SFO, 2018)

Taken 70th; career value ranks 1st in the class.

95 Career Score · 4 Pro Bowls · 4 All-Pros

Biggest bust

Josh Rosen

QB · pick 10 (ARI, 2018)

Pick 10 returned a 23 Career Score over 24 games.

23 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Lamar Jackson outplayed his slot by 25 spots, while Josh Rosen fell 153.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	CLE	Baker Mayfield	QB	74	2	0	7	19	-18
2	NYG	Saquon Barkley	RB	63	3	1	7	42	-40
3	NYJ	Sam Darnold	QB	58	2	0	6	54	-51
4	CLE	Denzel Ward	CB	76	5	0	8	14	-10
5	DEN	Bradley Chubb	EDGE	68	2	0	4	29	-24
6	IND	Quenton Nelson	G	90	8	3	8	4	+2
7	BUF	Josh Allen	QB	81	4	0	8	9	-2
8	CHI	Roquan Smith	ILB	90	4	3	8	3	+5
9	SFO	Mike McGlinchey	OT	71	0	0	7	23	-14
10	ARI	Josh Rosen	QB	23	0	0	1	163	-153
11	MIA	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	93	5	3	7	2	+9
12	TAM	Vita Vea	DT	58	2	0	6	51	-39
13	WAS	Daron Payne	DT	75	1	0	8	16	-3
14	NOR	Marcus Davenport	EDGE	52	0	0	2	76	-62
15	OAK	Kolton Miller	OT	69	0	0	7	27	-12
16	BUF	Tremaine Edmunds	ILB	80	2	0	8	12	+4
17	LAC	Derwin James	S	85	5	1	6	6	+11
18	GNB	Jaire Alexander	CB	71	2	0	5	24	-6
19	DAL	Leighton Vander Esch	OLB	56	1	0	5	57	-38
20	DET	Frank Ragnow	C	81	4	0	6	10	+10
21	CIN	Billy Price	C	45	0	0	3	93	-72
22	TEN	Rashaan Evans	ILB	55	0	0	4	65	-43
23	NWE	Isaiah Wynn	OT	50	0	0	3	81	-58
24	CAR	D.J. Moore	WR	72	0	0	8	21	+3
25	BAL	Hayden Hurst	TE	50	0	0	1	82	-57
26	ATL	Calvin Ridley	WR	61	0	0	4	48	-22
27	SEA	Rashaad Penny	RB	36	0	0	0	121	-94
28	PIT	Terrell Edmunds	S	60	0	0	5	49	-21
29	JAX	Taven Bryan	DT	47	0	0	4	88	-59
30	MIN	Mike Hughes	CB	49	0	0	2	86	-56
31	NWE	Sony Michel	RB	37	0	0	2	112	-81
32	BAL	Lamar Jackson	QB	84	4	3	7	7	+25

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2018 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Fred Warner	OLB	70	SFO	95	4	4	121
2	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	11	MIA	93	5	3	120
3	Roquan Smith	ILB	8	CHI	90	4	3	125
4	Quenton Nelson	G	6	IND	90	8	3	129
5	Shaquille Leonard	LB	36	IND	86	3	3	75
6	Derwin James	S	17	LAC	85	5	1	98
7	Lamar Jackson	QB	32	BAL	84	4	3	116
8	Jessie Bates III	S	54	CIN	82	1	0	130
9	Josh Allen	QB	7	BUF	81	4	0	128
10	Frank Ragnow	C	20	DET	81	4	0	96
11	Orlando Brown Jr.	OT	83	BAL	80	4	0	126
12	Tremaine Edmunds	ILB	16	BUF	80	2	0	119
13	Harold Landry	OLB	41	TEN	76	1	0	113
14	Denzel Ward	CB	4	CLE	76	5	0	110
15	Justin Reid	S	68	HOU	76	0	0	121
16	Daron Payne	DT	13	WAS	75	1	0	130
17	Foyesade Oluokun	S	200	ATL	74	0	0	128
18	Brian O'Neill	OT	62	MIN	74	2	0	124
19	Baker Mayfield	QB	1	CLE	74	2	0	123
20	Carlton Davis	CB	63	TAM	74	0	0	106
21	D.J. Moore	WR	24	CAR	72	0	0	131
22	Jordan Whitehead	S	117	TAM	71	0	0	105
23	Mike McGlinchey	OT	9	SFO	71	0	0	115
24	Jaire Alexander	CB	18	GNB	71	2	0	80
25	Wyatt Teller	G	166	BUF	71	3	0	109
26	Jerome Baker	OLB	73	MIA	69	0	0	121
27	Kolton Miller	OT	15	OAK	69	0	0	113
28	Connor Williams	OT	50	DAL	68	0	0	92
29	Bradley Chubb	EDGE	5	DEN	68	2	0	90
30	Michael Gallup	WR	81	DAL	68	0	0	86
31	Taron Johnson	CB	121	BUF	67	0	0	113
32	Mark Andrews	TE	86	BAL	67	3	1	121

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

70
Fred WarnerOLB · SFO
Taken 70th; career value ranks 1st in the class.
200
Foyesade OluokunS · ATL
Taken 200th; career value ranks 17th in the class.
36
Shaquille LeonardLB · IND
Taken 36th; career value ranks 5th in the class.
83
Orlando Brown Jr.OT · BAL
Taken 83rd; career value ranks 11th in the class.
54
Jessie Bates IIIS · CIN
Taken 54th; career value ranks 8th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

10
Josh RosenQB · ARI
Pick 10 returned a 23 Career Score over 24 games.
43
Kerryon JohnsonRB · DET
Pick 43 returned a 18 Career Score over 35 games.
46
Breeland SpeaksEDGE · KAN
Pick 46 returned a 16 Career Score over 16 games.
27
Rashaad PennyRB · SEA
Pick 27 returned a 36 Career Score over 45 games.
59
Derrius GuiceRB · WAS
Pick 59 returned a 4 Career Score over 5 games.

Every team's 2018 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.