Draftanomics · 2026-08-03

Camp Opens, the Board Shakes Out, and the Model Digs In on Adam Trick

A six-and-a-half-day window produced the board's ugliest slide of the summer and its widest model-versus-room gap yet.

By Draftanomics's models

Written by Draftanomics’s models from the live board and validated before publish — every number traces to a served value. How our writing works

Camps are open, and the board is already twitchy. Between July 27 and August 3, Draftanomics tracked 134 prospects across five snapshots, and the churn wasn’t subtle. This is the first real gut-check of the cycle — the point where names either survive contact with live scrimmage buzz or get quietly buried.

The top five held its shape. Jeremiah Smith, the Ohio State WR, sits at number one, with Colin Simmons and Dylan Stewart — a pair of EDGE prospects out of Texas and South Carolina — right behind him. Dylan Raiola, the QB, checks in at number four, with Leonard Moore, the Notre Dame CB, rounding out the group at five. No drama up top. The drama is everywhere else.

Risers

Rank Now	Rank Then	Δ	Player	Pos	College	Model Rank
77	94	+17	Sam Leavitt	QB	LSU	37
106	123	+17	Will Heldt	EDGE	Clemson	58
111	128	+17	Jaylen McClain	S	Ohio State	75
73	79	+6	Boubacar Traore	DL	Notre Dame	50
33	37	+4	LaNorris Sellers	QB	South Carolina	29
28	31	+3	Damon Wilson II	EDGE	Miami	53

Three names jumped the identical 17 spots — Leavitt, Heldt, McClain — which is either a coincidence or a sign that camp tape is moving the room in lockstep on certain profiles right now. The model likes the direction on Leavitt (37 vs. 77) but not the destination. Sellers is the interesting case: only a four-spot bump, but with 11 sources weighing in, his range runs from sixth on one board to 100th on another. That’s not noise. That’s a real fracture in how the room is grading him.

Fallers

Rank Now	Rank Then	Δ	Player	Pos	College
164	81	−83	Adam Trick	LB	Texas Tech
150	95	−55	Xavier Scott	CB	Illinois
165	112	−53	Chris Cole	LB	Georgia
162	116	−46	LJ Martin	RB	BYU
140	100	−40	Bray Hubbard	CB	Alabama
151	113	−38	Anto Saka	EDGE	Texas A&M
78	46	−32	OJ Frederique Jr.	CB	Miami
132	101	−31	Andrew Rappleyea	TE	Penn State

Trick fell 83 spots in six and a half days — the single ugliest slide on the sheet. Here’s the receipts, though: Draftanomics’s model still has him going 30th overall, a 134-slot gap that’s the widest model-bullish read in this cycle. Same story with Xavier Scott (dropped to 150, model has him 26th) and Chris Cole (dropped to 165, model has him 48th). The room bailed on all three inside a week. The model didn’t move.

New to the top 100

Rank	Player	Pos	College	Sources
19	Ahmad Hardy	RB	Missouri	12
23	Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR	Alabama	13
30	Will Echoles	DL	Ole Miss	13
31	Ahmad Moten Sr.	DL	Miami	15
41	Charlie Becker	WR	Indiana	15
48	Ty Benefield	ATH	LSU	5
54	A.J. Holmes Jr.	DL	Houston	7
61	Carter Smith	OT	Indiana	11

That’s eight new top-100 entries with heavy coverage behind most of them — Hardy, Coleman-Williams, Moten and Becker are all sitting on 12-plus boards already. The room isn’t guessing on these guys; it’s converged fast.

Model dissent, both directions

On the bullish side, the model’s biggest holds beyond Trick and Scott: Samson Okunlola (model 67, consensus 169, 25.0% bust), Suntarine Perkins (model 51, consensus 145, 27.1% bust) and Brandon Baker (model 83, consensus 170, 26.3% bust).

On the fade side, Jordan Ross is the outlier of the sheet — the room has him 58th, the model has him going 211th, a 153-slot gap with a 30.3% bust rate attached. KJ Duff isn’t far behind at −148, and the source spread tells you why: PFF’s Daire Carragher has him 19th while Sports Talk’s Sam Teets has him 124th. Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is the one that should worry you more — 10 sources agree on 91st, and the model still wants him at 217. And Jayden Maiava is the strangest case in the file: the model ranks him 51 spots below the room, but his bust probability sits at just 8.7%, the lowest number anywhere on this sheet. That’s not fear. That’s just a different read on the ceiling.

This piece was drafted by the Draftanomics beat writer from the frozen ledger and reviewed by a human before publishing.