On the live board, bust risk sits at 24% and the realistic range is No. 125 to No. 259.
Jaden Greathouse is a 6-foot-1, 220-pound target whose box score swings hard depending on the season — a 42-catch, 592-yard, four-touchdown 2024 gave way to just four catches for 73 yards in 2025. The model's career-value board still has him at No. 208 with a 50.3% shot at an elite tier outcome, but no public board has caught up to grade him yet.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Both of the model's reads put him in Day-3 / priority-free-agent range. If the public boards are higher, the model is the one doing the fading — check the dossier for what it isn't seeing.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Historical players this prospect resembles
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Too early to project a career arc.
No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, his charted total career snaps, and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Roster-based need returns once the 2026 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 208, and which of them already spent premium capital at RB / WR / TE in the 2026 draft.
Gold means no recent premium investment at RB / WR / TE — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.
No sourced scouting observations indexed yet — this read is model-only.
The model's optimistic on the ceiling — 50.3% elite, 28.1% starter — off a two-season sample that's missing consensus, school context and an untested athletic profile. There's no room to check that grade against because nobody else has ranked him, so this is a pure model take running well ahead of the record. Hold this one until the 2026 target share tells us whether 2024 or 2025 was the outlier.
Written by Draftanomics's models from the statistical record — no scouting sources cover this player yet, so no film claims appear. Every number is machine-checked against the live data before publication. How these reports are written →
Production dipped from 265 receiving yards in 2023 to 73 in 2025.
| Season | Team | Games | Rec | Yards | TD | Yds/catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Notre Dame | 12 | 18 | 265 | 5 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | Notre Dame | 16 | 42 | 592 | 4 | 14.1 |
| 2025 | Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 18.2 |
Counting stats from charted college games. A dash means the stat wasn't recorded that season.
Percentiles are direction-aware — for 40-time / 3-cone / shuttle, lower is faster, so a 95th-percentile mark means faster than 95% of peers. Hover any percentile for the exact peer group and sample size. A missing row means he hasn't posted that measurement.
Everything that could go wrong with Jaden Greathouse, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Pre-mortem: No material failure modes surface on Jaden Greathouse from current data.
No draft-media headlines link here yet — when an outlet we track writes this player up, it lands in this panel automatically.