Dynasty rookie board

The same career-value model that runs the big board, pointed at the only question a dynasty GM ever has: which rookies return fantasy production, and for how long. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends only — nobody starts a left tackle.

The 2024 class has been drafted — this board is the model’s pre-draft read, useful as a receipt against how the rookies actually landed.

Format1QB Superflex|Year2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022

1QB starts one quarterback, so even good QB prospects slide — QBs carry a 0.80 multiplier. Superflex starts two, which makes the position the scarcest asset in the format — QBs carry 1.30 instead. Nothing else changes between the two boards.

#	Player	Pos	College	Dynasty score	How it's built	Bust	Tier	Consensus
1	Drake Maye	QB	North Carolina	117.4	90.3 × 1.30	17%	Elite	7
2	Caleb Williams	QB	USC	111.4	85.7 × 1.30	16%	Starter	6
3	J.J. McCarthy	QB	Michigan	110.0	84.6 × 1.30	11%	Starter	22
4	Jayden Daniels	QB	LSU	109.6	84.3 × 1.30	8%	Elite	14
5	Rome Odunze	WR	Washington	94.1	85.6 × 1.10	1%	Starter	2
6	Ladd McConkey	WR	Georgia	93.4	84.9 × 1.10	9%	Starter	31
7	Brian Thomas	WR	LSU	91.1	82.8 × 1.10	0% class average	Starter	21
8	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Ohio St.	89.2	81.1 × 1.10	0% class average	Starter	5
9	Malik Nabers	WR	LSU	89.1	81.0 × 1.10	0% class average	Elite	1
10	Keon Coleman	WR	Florida St.	85.5	77.8 × 1.10	0% class average	Starter	32
11	Bo Nix	QB	Oregon	79.0	60.7 × 1.30	12%	Starter	38
12	Brock Bowers	TE	Georgia	78.7	82.9 × 0.95	5%	Elite	4
13	Adonai Mitchell	WR	Texas	78.0	70.9 × 1.10	0% class average	Role player	29
14	Michael Penix	QB	Washington	77.2	59.4 × 1.30	16%	Starter	37
15	Xavier Worthy	WR	Texas	75.0	68.2 × 1.10	0% class average	Role player	36
16	Xavier Legette	WR	South Carolina	71.9	65.4 × 1.10	9%	Role player	40
17	Ricky Pearsall	WR	Florida	71.9	65.4 × 1.10	12%	Starter	41
18	Ja'Lynn Polk	WR	Washington	71.7	65.2 × 1.10	0%	Role player	54
19	Malachi Corley	WR	Western Kentucky	70.3	63.9 × 1.10	1%	Role player	69
20	Troy Franklin	WR	Oregon	67.2	61.1 × 1.10	1%	Role player	43
21	Roman Wilson	WR	Michigan	66.6	60.6 × 1.10	13%	Bust	49
22	Jonathon Brooks	RB	Texas	64.8	76.2 × 0.85 × 1.00	11%	Role player	58
23	Devontez Walker	WR	North Carolina	62.5	56.8 × 1.10	20%	Bust	105
24	Jalen McMillan	WR	Washington	61.1	55.6 × 1.10	9%	Role player	97
25	Trey Benson	RB	Florida St.	59.9	70.4 × 0.85 × 1.00	18%	Role player	61
26	Michael Pratt	QB	Tulane	59.1	45.4 × 1.30	25%	Starter	119
27	Jaylen Wright	RB	Tennessee	56.6	66.6 × 0.85 × 1.00	15%	Role player	98
28	Malik Washington	WR	Virginia	53.9	49.0 × 1.10	29%	Role player	102
29	Audric Estime	RB	Notre Dame	53.6	63.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	15%	Role player	95
30	Jacob Cowing	WR	Arizona	51.2	46.5 × 1.10	35%	Role player	141
31	Jermaine Burton	WR	Alabama	50.9	46.3 × 1.10	8%	Role player	112
32	Tahj Washington	WR	USC	49.8	45.3 × 1.10	16%	Starter	165
33	Braelon Allen	RB	Wisconsin	49.0	57.7 × 0.85 × 1.00	16%	Role player	109
34	Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	Texas	48.2	50.7 × 0.95	28%	Starter	72
35	Blake Corum	RB	Michigan	47.8	60.5 × 0.85 × 0.93	24%	Role player	103
36	Theo Johnson	TE	Penn St.	47.7	50.2 × 0.95	24%	Role player	125
37	Kimani Vidal	RB	Troy	46.7	56.8 × 0.85 × 0.97	9%	Role player	178
38	Ben Sinnott	TE	Kansas St.	46.5	48.9 × 0.95	19%	Bust	93
39	MarShawn Lloyd	RB	USC	46.4	58.4 × 0.85 × 0.93	47%	Role player	124
40	Spencer Rattler	QB	South Carolina	46.0	35.4 × 1.30	31%	Role player	82
41	Jordan Travis	QB	Florida St.	45.3	34.8 × 1.30	23%	Starter	198
42	Johnny Wilson	WR	Florida St.	44.8	40.7 × 1.10	16%	Role player	76
43	Bub Means	WR	Pittsburgh	43.9	39.9 × 1.10	35%	Role player	202
44	Javon Baker	WR	Central Florida	43.3	39.4 × 1.10	9%	Bust	96
45	Brenden Rice	WR	USC	42.2	38.4 × 1.10	38%	Bust	143
46	Ryan Flournoy	WR	SE Missouri St.	41.7	37.9 × 1.10	47%	Role player	187
47	Cornelius Johnson	WR	Michigan	38.8	35.2 × 1.10	21%	Starter	170
48	Jamari Thrash	WR	Louisville	38.3	34.8 × 1.10	47%	Bust	137
49	Jared Wiley	TE	TCU	38.0	40.0 × 0.95	30%	Bust	106
50	AJ Barner	TE	Michigan	37.2	39.1 × 0.95	14%	Starter	162
51	Jha'Quan Jackson	WR	Tulane	36.9	33.5 × 1.10	29%	Role player	183
52	Ray Davis	RB	Kentucky	36.5	49.0 × 0.85 × 0.88	37%	Starter	139
53	Isaiah Davis	RB	South Dakota St.	35.1	41.6 × 0.85 × 0.99	17%	Role player	156
54	Bucky Irving	RB	Oregon	34.6	40.7 × 0.85 × 1.00	19%	Starter	120
55	Luke McCaffrey	WR	Rice	33.5	30.5 × 1.10	29%	Starter	135
56	Will Shipley	RB	Clemson	33.2	39.0 × 0.85 × 1.00	26%	Bust	68
57	Cade Stover	TE	Ohio St.	33.0	34.7 × 0.95	27%	Starter	111
58	Jordan Whittington	WR	Texas	32.3	29.4 × 1.10	9%	Role player	189
59	Tejhaun Palmer	WR	Ala-Birmingham	32.1	29.2 × 1.10	26%	Starter	199
60	Devaughn Vele	WR	Utah	31.4	28.6 × 1.10	38%	Starter	—
61	Anthony Gould	WR	Oregon St.	30.5	27.7 × 1.10	21%	Bust	203
62	Erick All	TE	Iowa	30.3	31.9 × 0.95	25%	Role player	153
63	Joe Milton	QB	Tennessee	30.1	23.2 × 1.30	34%	Role player	—
64	Isaac Guerendo	RB	Louisville	29.9	38.8 × 0.85 × 0.91	39%	Role player	160
65	Jaheim Bell	TE	Florida St.	29.8	31.3 × 0.95	29%	Bust	154
66	Casey Washington	WR	Illinois	28.5	25.9 × 1.10	23%	Bust	218
67	Tip Reiman	TE	Illinois	28.3	29.8 × 0.95	21%	Bust	197
68	Ainias Smith	WR	Texas A&M	27.8	25.3 × 1.10	23%	Role player	174
69	Tanner McLachlan	TE	Arizona	27.4	28.9 × 0.95	41%	Bust	191
70	Dylan Laube	RB	New Hampshire	27.4	36.6 × 0.85 × 0.88	16%	Bust	142
71	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	Purdue	26.4	35.3 × 0.85 × 0.88	26%	Role player	146
72	Devin Leary	QB	Kentucky	25.3	19.4 × 1.30	38%	—	—
73	Rasheen Ali	RB	Marshall	24.7	30.9 × 0.85 × 0.94	19%	Bust	204
74	Devin Culp	TE	Washington	22.7	23.9 × 0.95	30%	Bust	—
75	Jase McClellan	RB	Alabama	22.2	26.2 × 0.85 × 1.00	24%	Bust	—
76	Jawhar Jordan	RB	Louisville	20.9	28.4 × 0.85 × 0.87	60%	Bust	—
77	Keilan Robinson	RB	Texas	13.8	18.2 × 0.85 × 0.89	19%	Bust	—

How this differs from the big board

Built from the same models as the big board — here's exactly how the lens differs. The base is the served career-value model score, untouched. On top of it sit three documented adjustments, all shown per player in the table:

Dynasty score = model score × position multiplier (Superflex) × RB age multiplier

Position: QB ×1.30, RB ×0.85, WR ×1.10, TE ×0.95 — QB scarcity by format, the RB career-length discount, the WR longevity premium, the TE slow-onboarding haircut.
RB age cliff: RB only: 1.00 at age 22 or younger at draft, minus 0.05 per year older, floor 0.85. When we don't have a player's age on file, no adjustment is applied and the row says so.
Tier reads: shown only where the tier model itself stands behind them; when it isn't confident, you get a dash, not a guess.

The multipliers are round numbers encoding dynasty-market convention (QB scarcity by format, the RB age cliff, WR longevity, the TE year-3 breakout) — convention, not Draftanomics research. The model signal is entirely in the base. College production volume (target and workload share) is already inside the base score as model features — it isn't double-counted here. See methodology for how the career-value model is fit and validated.