The 2015 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 254 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Marcus Peters

CB · pick 18 (KAN, 2015)

Actually went 18th to KAN.

83 Career Score · 3 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Stefon Diggs

WR · pick 146 (MIN, 2015)

Taken 146th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.

81 Career Score · 4 Pro Bowls · 1 All-Pro

Biggest bust

Ereck Flowers

OT · pick 9 (NYG, 2015)

Pick 9 returned a 11 Career Score over 105 games.

11 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Byron Jones outplayed his slot by 23 spots, while Ereck Flowers fell 181.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	TAM	Jameis Winston	QB	55	1	0	5	42	-41
2	TEN	Marcus Mariota	QB	57	0	0	5	37	-35
3	JAX	Dante Fowler	OLB	59	0	0	3	32	-29
4	OAK	Amari Cooper	WR	79	5	0	9	5	-1
5	WAS	Brandon Scherff	OT	43	5	1	10	66	-61
6	NYJ	Leonard Williams	EDGE	72	3	0	10	11	-5
7	CHI	Kevin White	WR	26	0	0	0	115	-108
8	ATL	Vic Beasley	OLB	67	1	1	5	22	-14
9	NYG	Ereck Flowers	OT	11	0	0	7	190	-181
10	STL	Todd Gurley	RB	69	3	2	6	16	-6
11	MIN	Trae Waynes	CB	65	0	0	3	23	-12
12	CLE	Danny Shelton	DT	47	0	0	5	58	-46
13	NOR	Andrus Peat	OT	35	3	0	7	86	-73
14	MIA	DeVante Parker	WR	62	0	0	6	28	-14
15	SDG	Melvin Gordon	RB	58	2	0	7	35	-20
16	HOU	Kevin Johnson	CB	52	0	0	0	49	-33
17	SFO	Arik Armstead	DT	58	0	0	7	34	-17
18	KAN	Marcus Peters	CB	83	3	2	7	1	+17
19	CLE	Cameron Erving	C	25	0	0	3	124	-105
20	PHI	Nelson Agholor	WR	60	0	0	7	30	-10
21	CIN	Cedric Ogbuehi	OT	20	0	0	2	146	-125
22	PIT	Bud Dupree	OLB	67	0	0	6	20	+2
23	DEN	Shane Ray	EDGE	40	0	0	1	71	-48
24	ARI	D.J. Humphries	OT	29	1	0	7	102	-78
25	CAR	Shaq Thompson	OLB	67	0	0	8	21	+4
26	BAL	Breshad Perriman	WR	37	0	0	1	78	-52
27	DAL	Byron Jones	CB	80	1	0	7	4	+23
28	DET	Laken Tomlinson	G	26	1	0	10	116	-88
29	IND	Phillip Dorsett	WR	43	0	0	0	64	-35
30	GNB	Damarious Randall	S	59	0	0	5	31	-1
31	NOR	Stephone Anthony	ILB	31	0	0	1	94	-63
32	NWE	Malcom Brown	DT	50	0	0	6	50	-18

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2015 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Marcus Peters	CB	18	KAN	83	3	2	116
2	Eric Kendricks	ILB	45	MIN	81	1	1	150
3	Stefon Diggs	WR	146	MIN	81	4	1	161
4	Byron Jones	CB	27	DAL	80	1	0	109
5	Amari Cooper	WR	4	OAK	79	5	0	154
6	Landon Collins	S	33	NYG	78	3	1	100
7	Tyler Lockett	WR	69	SEA	75	1	1	178
8	Steven Nelson	CB	98	KAN	73	0	0	130
9	Grady Jarrett	DT	137	ATL	73	2	0	166
10	Adrian Amos	S	142	CHI	72	0	0	143
11	Leonard Williams	EDGE	6	NYJ	72	3	0	175
12	Quandre Diggs	CB	200	DET	72	3	0	155
13	Jordan Hicks	OLB	84	PHI	70	0	0	134
14	Frank Clark	EDGE	63	SEA	70	3	0	128
15	Za'Darius Smith	EDGE	122	BAL	70	3	0	145
16	Todd Gurley	RB	10	STL	69	3	2	88
17	Benardrick McKinney	ILB	43	HOU	69	1	0	91
18	Preston Smith	EDGE	38	WAS	69	0	0	176
19	Danielle Hunter	EDGE	88	MIN	68	5	0	153
20	Bud Dupree	OLB	22	PIT	67	0	0	152
21	Shaq Thompson	OLB	25	CAR	67	0	0	135
22	Vic Beasley	OLB	8	ATL	67	1	1	88
23	Trae Waynes	CB	11	MIN	65	0	0	79
24	Ronald Darby	CB	50	BUF	63	0	0	118
25	Kwon Alexander	OLB	124	TAM	63	1	0	109
26	Trey Flowers	EDGE	101	NWE	63	0	0	79
27	Jaquiski Tartt	S	46	SFO	62	0	0	80
28	DeVante Parker	WR	14	MIA	62	0	0	119
29	David Johnson	RB	86	ARI	61	1	1	92
30	Nelson Agholor	WR	20	PHI	60	0	0	149
31	Damarious Randall	S	30	GNB	59	0	0	75
32	Dante Fowler	OLB	3	JAX	59	0	0	159

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

146
Stefon DiggsWR · MIN
Taken 146th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.
45
Eric KendricksILB · MIN
Taken 45th; career value ranks 2nd in the class.
200
Quandre DiggsCB · DET
Taken 200th; career value ranks 12th in the class.
137
Grady JarrettDT · ATL
Taken 137th; career value ranks 9th in the class.
142
Adrian AmosS · CHI
Taken 142nd; career value ranks 10th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

9
Ereck FlowersOT · NYG
Pick 9 returned a 11 Career Score over 105 games.
7
Kevin WhiteWR · CHI
Pick 7 returned a 26 Career Score over 30 games.
21
Cedric OgbuehiOT · CIN
Pick 21 returned a 20 Career Score over 67 games.
19
Cameron ErvingC · CLE
Pick 19 returned a 25 Career Score over 98 games.
5
Brandon ScherffOT · WAS
Pick 5 returned a 43 Career Score over 140 games.

Every team's 2015 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.