Dynasty rookie board

The same career-value model that runs the big board, pointed at the only question a dynasty GM ever has: which rookies return fantasy production, and for how long. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends only — nobody starts a left tackle.

The 2022 class has been drafted — this board is the model’s pre-draft read, useful as a receipt against how the rookies actually landed.

Format1QB Superflex|Year2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022

1QB starts one quarterback, so even good QB prospects slide — QBs carry a 0.80 multiplier. Superflex starts two, which makes the position the scarcest asset in the format — QBs carry 1.30 instead. Nothing else changes between the two boards.

#	Player	Pos	College	Dynasty score	How it's built	Bust	Tier	Consensus
1	Garrett Wilson	WR	Ohio St.	95.5	86.8 × 1.10	1%	Elite	12
2	Kenny Pickett	QB	Pittsburgh	94.8	72.9 × 1.30	18%	Starter	34
3	Desmond Ridder	QB	Cincinnati	94.8	72.9 × 1.30	15%	Role player	41
4	Sam Howell	QB	North Carolina	94.6	72.8 × 1.30	11%	Starter	61
5	Malik Willis	QB	Liberty	94.2	72.5 × 1.30	27%	Role player	28
6	Jameson Williams	WR	Alabama	93.9	85.4 × 1.10	0%	Starter	10
7	Treylon Burks	WR	Arkansas	87.9	79.9 × 1.10	30%	Starter	22
8	Drake London	WR	USC	87.1	79.2 × 1.10	3%	Starter	13
9	Matt Corral	QB	Mississippi	79.4	61.1 × 1.30	24%	Bust	50
10	Jahan Dotson	WR	Penn St.	78.2	71.1 × 1.10	18%	Starter	32
11	Chris Olave	WR	Ohio St.	76.0	69.1 × 1.10	4%	Starter	15
12	Skyy Moore	WR	Western Michigan	74.7	67.9 × 1.10	14%	Starter	38
13	Christian Watson	WR	North Dakota St.	73.9	67.1 × 1.10	8%	Starter	51
14	Breece Hall	RB	Iowa St.	73.2	86.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	13%	Role player	47
15	John Metchie	WR	Alabama	70.3	63.9 × 1.10	1%	Role player	71
16	George Pickens	WR	Georgia	66.2	60.2 × 1.10	4%	Starter	42
17	Trey McBride	TE	Colorado St.	64.3	67.7 × 0.95	18%	Starter	58
18	Kenneth Walker III	RB	Michigan St.	62.1	73.0 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Role player	46
19	Tyquan Thornton	WR	Baylor	59.8	54.3 × 1.10	26%	Role player	129
20	David Bell	WR	Purdue	57.7	52.5 × 1.10	16%	Role player	76
21	Calvin Austin III	WR	Memphis	55.0	50.0 × 1.10	21%	Role player	119
22	Alec Pierce	WR	Cincinnati	54.1	49.2 × 1.10	18%	Starter	95
23	Cade Otton	TE	Washington	53.8	56.6 × 0.95	18%	Starter	128
24	Jalen Tolbert	WR	South Alabama	51.5	46.8 × 1.10	14%	Role player	112
25	Khalil Shakir	WR	Boise St.	50.3	45.8 × 1.10	30%	Starter	141
26	Isaiah Likely	TE	Coastal Carolina	49.4	52.0 × 0.95	19%	Starter	145
27	Isaiah Spiller	RB	Texas A&M	49.3	57.9 × 0.85 × 1.00	18%	Role player	67
28	Chig Okonkwo	TE	Maryland	48.9	51.5 × 0.95	27%	Role player	150
29	Brock Purdy	QB	Iowa St.	47.1	36.2 × 1.30	31%	Elite	—
30	Bailey Zappe	QB	Western Kentucky	45.3	34.9 × 1.30	25%	Role player	151
31	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	Kentucky	43.9	39.9 × 1.10	12%	Starter	154
32	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	Alabama	43.5	54.1 × 0.85 × 0.94	15%	Role player	98
33	Daniel Bellinger	TE	San Diego St.	43.4	45.7 × 0.95	26%	Role player	138
34	Dareke Young	WR	Lenoir-Rhyne	43.1	39.1 × 1.10	20%	Bust	—
35	Greg Dulcich	TE	UCLA	40.8	43.0 × 0.95	23%	Role player	86
36	Chris Oladokun	QB	South Dakota St.	40.2	30.9 × 1.30	32%	Role player	—
37	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	Ohio St.	39.7	41.8 × 0.95	28%	Role player	107
38	Pierre Strong	RB	South Dakota St.	39.0	49.2 × 0.85 × 0.93	19%	Role player	121
39	Rachaad White	RB	Arizona St.	38.6	48.6 × 0.85 × 0.94	10%	Role player	93
40	Dameon Pierce	RB	Florida	37.7	44.7 × 0.85 × 0.99	20%	Role player	123
41	Kyren Williams	RB	Notre Dame	37.1	43.7 × 0.85 × 1.00	74%	Elite	111
42	Tyler Allgeier	RB	BYU	36.8	43.3 × 0.85 × 1.00	6%	Role player	91
43	Romeo Doubs	WR	Nevada	36.3	33.0 × 1.10	12%	Starter	140
44	Montrell Washington	WR	Samford	36.1	32.8 × 1.10	20%	Role player	—
45	Kyle Philips	WR	UCLA	35.6	32.4 × 1.10	39%	Role player	103
46	Danny Gray	WR	SMU	35.6	32.3 × 1.10	22%	Bust	147
47	Bo Melton	WR	Rutgers	34.9	31.7 × 1.10	32%	Role player	—
48	Andrew Ogletree	TE	Youngstown St.	34.9	36.8 × 0.95	27%	Role player	—
49	James Cook	RB	Georgia	34.2	41.4 × 0.85 × 0.97	34%	Elite	159
50	Jalen Nailor	WR	Michigan St.	34.0	30.9 × 1.10	38%	Role player	—
51	Kevin Harris	RB	South Carolina	33.7	39.7 × 0.85 × 1.00	11%	Role player	—
52	Erik Ezukanma	WR	Texas Tech	33.5	30.5 × 1.10	36%	Role player	—
53	Zamir White	RB	Georgia	32.8	39.9 × 0.85 × 0.97	20%	Role player	99
54	Keaontay Ingram	RB	USC	32.3	39.0 × 0.85 × 0.97	22%	Role player	—
55	Michael Woods II	WR	Oklahoma	30.9	28.1 × 1.10	28%	Role player	—
56	Hassan Haskins	RB	Michigan	30.7	36.9 × 0.85 × 0.98	10%	Role player	—
57	Tyler Badie	RB	Missouri	30.4	36.2 × 0.85 × 0.99	22%	Role player	—
58	Jerome Ford	RB	Cincinnati	29.3	35.5 × 0.85 × 0.97	14%	Role player	124
59	Nick Muse	TE	South Carolina	29.0	30.6 × 0.95	21%	Bust	—
60	Connor Heyward	TE	Michigan St.	28.7	30.2 × 0.95	17%	Role player	—
61	Isiah Pacheco	RB	Rutgers	28.2	35.2 × 0.85 × 0.94	52%	Role player	—
62	James Mitchell	TE	Virginia Tech	27.9	29.4 × 0.95	26%	Role player	—
63	Trestan Ebner	RB	Baylor	27.8	35.1 × 0.85 × 0.93	35%	Bust	—
64	Teagan Quitoriano	TE	Oregon St.	26.9	28.3 × 0.95	21%	Role player	—
65	Jelani Woods	TE	Virginia	26.7	28.2 × 0.95	23%	Bust	160
66	Jake Ferguson	TE	Wisconsin	26.3	27.7 × 0.95	17%	Elite	164
67	Charlie Kolar	TE	Iowa St.	26.0	27.3 × 0.95	22%	Role player	146
68	Ko Kieft	TE	Minnesota	25.7	27.0 × 0.95	21%	Role player	—
69	Tyrion Davis-Price	RB	LSU	25.6	30.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	33%	Role player	—
70	Skylar Thompson	QB	Kansas St.	25.1	19.3 × 1.30	31%	Role player	—
71	Zander Horvath	RB	Purdue	24.5	31.0 × 0.85 × 0.93	34%	Bust	—
72	John FitzPatrick	TE	Georgia	23.5	24.8 × 0.95	12%	Bust	—
73	Snoop Conner	RB	Mississippi	22.2	26.1 × 0.85 × 1.00	49%	Bust	—
74	Cole Turner	TE	Nevada	20.6	21.7 × 0.95	35%	Bust	—
75	Brittain Brown	RB	UCLA	20.4	27.5 × 0.85 × 0.87	34%	Bust	—
76	Velus Jones Jr.	WR	Tennessee	20.3	18.4 × 1.10	38%	Role player	143
77	Grant Calcaterra	TE	SMU	18.4	19.3 × 0.95	33%	Role player	—
78	Ty Chandler	RB	North Carolina	15.6	20.3 × 0.85 × 0.90	40%	Role player	—
79	Samori Toure	WR	Nebraska	12.1	11.0 × 1.10	11%	Role player	—

How this differs from the big board

Built from the same models as the big board — here's exactly how the lens differs. The base is the served career-value model score, untouched. On top of it sit three documented adjustments, all shown per player in the table:

Dynasty score = model score × position multiplier (Superflex) × RB age multiplier

Position: QB ×1.30, RB ×0.85, WR ×1.10, TE ×0.95 — QB scarcity by format, the RB career-length discount, the WR longevity premium, the TE slow-onboarding haircut.
RB age cliff: RB only: 1.00 at age 22 or younger at draft, minus 0.05 per year older, floor 0.85. When we don't have a player's age on file, no adjustment is applied and the row says so.
Tier reads: shown only where the tier model itself stands behind them; when it isn't confident, you get a dash, not a guess.

The multipliers are round numbers encoding dynasty-market convention (QB scarcity by format, the RB age cliff, WR longevity, the TE year-3 breakout) — convention, not Draftanomics research. The model signal is entirely in the base. College production volume (target and workload share) is already inside the base score as model features — it isn't double-counted here. See methodology for how the career-value model is fit and validated.