AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamari Johnson | TE | Oregon | 94% | $16.1M-$24.7M | — | — |
| 2 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State | 97% | $15.4M-$23.5M | — | — |
| 3 | Ryan Williams | WR | Alabama | 97% | $15.1M-$23.1M | — | — |
| 4 | Ryan Wingo | WR | Texas | 78% | $18.0M-$27.6M | — | — |
| 5 | Cam Coleman | WR | Texas | 97% | $13.8M-$21.2M | — | — |
| 6 | Nick Marsh | WR | Indiana | 93% | $14.0M-$21.4M | — | — |
| 7 | Javen Jacobs | RB | New Mexico | 93% | $11.2M-$17.1M | — | — |
| 8 | Kewan Lacy | RB | Ole Miss | 86% | $10.6M-$16.2M | — | — |
| 9 | Aaron Anderson | WR | LSU | 90% | $10.1M-$15.4M | — | — |
| 10 | Trey'Dez Green | TE | LSU | 85% | $9.7M-$14.9M | — | — |
| 11 | Mario Craver | WR | Texas A&M | 97% | $8.3M-$12.6M | — | — |
| 12 | Iverson Hooks | WR | Oregon | 87% | $9.3M-$14.2M | — | — |
| 13 | Terrance Carter Jr. | TE | Texas Tech | 85% | $9.2M-$14.1M | — | — |
| 14 | Omarion Miller | WR | Arizona State | 82% | $9.2M-$14.1M | — | — |
| 15 | Bryant Wesco Jr. | WR | Clemson | 93% | $8.0M-$12.2M | — | — |
| 16 | Isaac Brown | RB | Louisville | 71% | $10.0M-$15.3M | — | — |
| 17 | Jayce Brown | WR | LSU | 94% | $7.3M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 18 | Nate Frazier | RB | Georgia | 86% | $7.7M-$11.7M | — | — |
| 19 | Isaiah Bond | WR | Texas | 69% | $9.3M-$14.2M | — | — |
| 20 | Wyatt Young | WR | Oklahoma State | 96% | $6.6M-$10.1M | — | — |
| 21 | Devin McCuin | WR | Ohio State | 93% | $6.6M-$10.1M | — | — |
| 22 | Coy Eakin | WR | Texas Tech | 86% | $7.2M-$11.0M | — | — |
| 23 | Jayden Gibson | WR | South Carolina | 80% | $7.2M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 24 | Javon Tracy | WR | Minnesota | 75% | $7.6M-$11.6M | — | — |
| 25 | Keshon Singleton | WR | Air Force | 90% | $6.3M-$9.6M | — | — |
| 26 | Isaiah Sategna | WR | Oklahoma | 64% | $8.8M-$13.5M | — | — |
| 27 | Jadan Baugh | RB | Florida | 74% | $7.5M-$11.5M | — | — |
| 28 | Braylin Presley | RB | Tulsa | 87% | $6.1M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 29 | Adrian Norton | WR | Marshall | 57% | $8.9M-$13.7M | — | — |
| 30 | Nyck Harbor | WR | South Carolina | 74% | $6.1M-$9.3M | — | — |
| 31 | KJ Duff | TE | Rutgers | 59% | $7.5M-$11.5M | — | — |
| 32 | Parker Kingston | WR | BYU | 56% | $8.0M-$12.2M | — | — |
| 33 | Mike Matthews | WR | Tennessee | 85% | $5.2M-$8.0M | — | — |
| 34 | Duce Robinson | TE | Florida State | 72% | $5.7M-$8.8M | — | — |
| 35 | Junior Sherrill | WR | Vanderbilt | 86% | $4.7M-$7.3M | — | — |
| 36 | Andrew Rappleyea | TE | Penn State | 67% | $6.0M-$9.3M | — | — |
| 37 | Chico Holt | TE | Stanford | 64% | $6.2M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 38 | Nikolas McMillan | WR | Buffalo | 56% | $6.8M-$10.4M | — | — |
| 39 | Tyler Dostin | TE | West Florida | 67% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 40 | Marquis Johnson | WR | Mississippi State | 40% | $8.0M-$12.2M | — | — |
| 41 | Jyzaiah Rockwell | WR | Western Kentucky | 64% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 42 | Benjamin Brahmer | WR | Penn State | 68% | $4.1M-$6.2M | — | — |
| 43 | Harvey Broussard III | WR | Houston | 45% | $6.2M-$9.5M | — | — |
| 44 | Jordan Williams | TE | Sacramento State | — | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 45 | Junior Vandeross III | WR | Toledo | 40% | $5.8M-$8.8M | — | — |
| 46 | Will Henderson III | RB | UTSA | 32% | $7.2M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 47 | David Johnson | WR | Washington State | — | $4.3M-$6.6M | — | — |
| 48 | Johntay Cook | WR | Texas | 41% | $5.2M-$8.0M | — | — |
| 49 | Jaden Greathouse | WR | Notre Dame | 49% | $4.3M-$6.5M | — | — |
| 50 | Jeremiah Cobb | RB | Auburn | 35% | $5.7M-$8.8M | — | — |
| 51 | Cole Spence | TE | Vanderbilt | 35% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 52 | Evan Stewart | WR | Oregon | 41% | $4.6M-$7.1M | — | — |
| 53 | Kam Perry | WR | Indiana | 30% | $6.1M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 54 | Dazmin James | WR | App State | 43% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
| 55 | Brandon Johnson | RB | Northern Colorado | — | $3.4M-$5.2M | — | — |
| 56 | LJ Martin | RB | BYU | 35% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 57 | Fluff Bothwell | RB | Mississippi State | 52% | $3.2M-$4.9M | — | — |
| 58 | Luby Maurice | WR | Florida International | 30% | $5.4M-$8.3M | — | — |
| 59 | Xavier Williams | RB | Iowa | — | $3.1M-$4.7M | — | — |
| 60 | T.J. Moore | WR | Clemson | 32% | $4.9M-$7.6M | — | — |
| 61 | Le'Veon Moss | RB | Texas A&M | 51% | $3.1M-$4.8M | — | — |
| 62 | Dae'Quan Wright | TE | Ole Miss | 35% | $4.5M-$6.8M | — | — |
| 63 | Traylon Ray | WR | Ole Miss | 31% | $5.1M-$7.7M | — | — |
| 64 | Chrishon McCray | RB | Michigan State | 24% | $6.3M-$9.7M | — | — |
| 65 | Elijah Moore | WR | Florida State | — | $2.9M-$4.4M | — | — |
| 66 | Zach Vigil | RB | New Mexico | — | $2.8M-$4.3M | — | — |
| 67 | Jacob Harris | WR | Bowling Green | — | $2.8M-$4.3M | — | — |
| 68 | Cayden Lee | WR | Missouri | 28% | $5.2M-$7.9M | — | — |
| 69 | DeSean Bishop | RB | Tennessee | 40% | $3.6M-$5.5M | — | — |
| 70 | Ajay Allen | RB | Miami | 27% | $5.2M-$8.0M | — | — |
| 71 | Jeremy Payne | RB | TCU | 19% | $7.4M-$11.4M | — | — |
| 72 | Theo Melin Ohrstrom | TE | SMU | 31% | $4.5M-$6.9M | — | — |
| 73 | Kory Hall | WR | Colorado State | 33% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
| 74 | Cam Cook | RB | West Virginia | 24% | $5.5M-$8.4M | — | — |
| 75 | Greg Gaines | WR | Iowa State | 32% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
| 76 | Mike Mitchell | RB | Arizona | — | $2.4M-$3.7M | — | — |
| 77 | London Humphreys | WR | Georgia | 30% | $4.2M-$6.5M | — | — |
| 78 | Sam Martin Jr. | RB | Wagner | — | $2.4M-$3.7M | — | — |
| 79 | Garrett Oakley | TE | Kansas State | 11% | $11.4M-$17.5M | — | — |
| 80 | Josh Palmer | TE | Vanderbilt | — | $2.3M-$3.5M | — | — |
| 81 | David Wells Jr. | WR | Tulsa | — | $2.2M-$3.3M | — | — |
| 82 | Dane Key | WR | Nebraska | 34% | $3.3M-$5.1M | — | — |
| 83 | Duane Thomas Jr. | WR | UCF | 27% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
| 84 | Antonio Gates Jr. | WR | Delaware State | — | $2.1M-$3.3M | — | — |
| 85 | Eric Smith | WR | Liberty | — | $2.1M-$3.2M | — | — |
| 86 | George Pettaway | RB | James Madison | 29% | $3.7M-$5.6M | — | — |
| 87 | Nic Anderson | WR | Kentucky | 20% | $4.9M-$7.6M | — | — |
| 88 | Darius Taylor | RB | Minnesota | 14% | $6.8M-$10.3M | — | — |
| 89 | Jordan Hudson | WR | SMU | 21% | $4.1M-$6.3M | — | — |
| 90 | Hank Beatty | WR | Illinois | 14% | $4.6M-$7.1M | — | — |
| 91 | Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB | Miami | 12% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 92 | Amari Niblack | TE | Texas A&M | 18% | $3.3M-$5.1M | — | — |
| 93 | Cedric Hawkins | RB | Arkansas State | 9% | $5.1M-$7.8M | — | — |
| 94 | Kendrick Raphael | RB | SMU | 8% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 95 | J'Koby Williams | RB | Texas Tech | 4% | $8.2M-$12.5M | — | — |
| 96 | Turbo Richard | RB | Indiana | 7% | $3.8M-$5.8M | — | — |
| 97 | Major Everhart | RB | TCU | 3% | $5.4M-$8.3M | — | — |
| 98 | Jordan Marshall | RB | Michigan | 5% | $3.8M-$5.7M | — | — |
| 99 | Aneyas Williams | RB | Notre Dame | 5% | $2.6M-$4.1M | — | — |
| 100 | Will Dixon | TE | Rhode Island | 2% | $3.0M-$4.7M | — | — |
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.