AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Stewart | EDGE | South Carolina | 89% | $18.3M-$28.1M | — | — |
| 2 | Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa | LB | Notre Dame | 88% | $14.8M-$22.7M | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Trick | LB | Texas Tech | 92% | $13.0M-$20.0M | — | — |
| 4 | David Stone | DL | Oklahoma | 90% | $13.0M-$19.9M | — | — |
| 5 | Quincy Rhodes Jr. | DL | Arkansas | 94% | $12.1M-$18.5M | — | — |
| 6 | Colin Simmons | EDGE | Texas | 95% | $11.6M-$17.8M | — | — |
| 7 | A'Mauri Washington | DL | Oregon | 84% | $13.2M-$20.2M | — | — |
| 8 | William Echoles | DL | Ole Miss | 88% | $11.7M-$18.0M | — | — |
| 9 | Rasheem Biles | LB | Texas | 97% | $10.2M-$15.6M | — | — |
| 10 | Boubacar Traore | DL | Notre Dame | 90% | $10.9M-$16.6M | — | — |
| 11 | Maverick Baranowski | LB | Minnesota | 66% | $14.8M-$22.7M | — | — |
| 12 | Will Heldt | EDGE | Clemson | 80% | $11.0M-$16.8M | — | — |
| 13 | Ethan Wesloski | LB | Oklahoma State | 94% | $9.3M-$14.2M | — | — |
| 14 | Jonathan Maldonado | EDGE | Ole Miss | 72% | $11.7M-$17.9M | — | — |
| 15 | Matayo Uiagalelei | EDGE | Oregon | 85% | $9.7M-$14.8M | — | — |
| 16 | Bear Alexander | DL | Oregon | 92% | $8.4M-$12.8M | — | — |
| 17 | Chris Cole | LB | Georgia | 74% | $9.7M-$14.9M | — | — |
| 18 | Suntarine Perkins | LB | Ole Miss | 76% | $8.7M-$13.4M | — | — |
| 19 | Sammy Brown | LB | Clemson | 85% | $7.8M-$11.9M | — | — |
| 20 | Tony Rojas | LB | Penn State | 74% | $8.6M-$13.2M | — | — |
| 21 | Justin Scott | DL | Miami | 76% | $8.0M-$12.3M | — | — |
| 22 | Ty'Anthony Smith | LB | Texas | 83% | $6.8M-$10.5M | — | — |
| 23 | Damon Wilson II | EDGE | Miami | 66% | $8.3M-$12.8M | — | — |
| 24 | Malachi Davis | DL | Rutgers | 77% | $7.1M-$10.8M | — | — |
| 25 | Kam Robinson | LB | Virginia | 79% | $6.2M-$9.5M | — | — |
| 26 | Trey White | LB | Texas Tech | 72% | $6.7M-$10.3M | — | — |
| 27 | Gabe Peterson | LB | Houston | 66% | $7.2M-$11.0M | — | — |
| 28 | TJ Bush Jr. | DL | Minnesota | 72% | $6.3M-$9.6M | — | — |
| 29 | Christian Alliegro | LB | Ohio State | 65% | $6.9M-$10.5M | — | — |
| 30 | Yhonzae Pierre | EDGE | Alabama | 82% | $5.3M-$8.1M | — | — |
| 31 | Luke Mergott | LB | Duke | 76% | $5.6M-$8.6M | — | — |
| 32 | Daymion Sanford | EDGE | Texas A&M | 54% | $7.7M-$11.7M | — | — |
| 33 | Nyjalik Kelly | DL | UCF | 57% | $7.3M-$11.2M | — | — |
| 34 | Amare Campbell | LB | Tennessee | 43% | $9.1M-$13.9M | — | — |
| 35 | John Walker | DL | Ohio State | 53% | $7.0M-$10.7M | — | — |
| 36 | Josiah Robinson | LB | Georgia State | 58% | $6.2M-$9.5M | — | — |
| 37 | J'Mond Tapp | EDGE | Memphis | 55% | $6.4M-$9.8M | — | — |
| 38 | Jordan Norwood | LB | Incarnate Word | — | $6.7M-$10.3M | — | — |
| 39 | Teitum Tuioti | EDGE | Oregon | 69% | $5.0M-$7.6M | — | — |
| 40 | Jordan Hall | LB | Michigan State | 69% | $4.8M-$7.4M | — | — |
| 41 | Tony Carter | LB | Washington State | — | $6.3M-$9.6M | — | — |
| 42 | Jordan Kwiatkowski | LB | Central Michigan | 46% | $7.2M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 43 | Fisher Camac | LB | Virginia | 48% | $6.4M-$9.8M | — | — |
| 44 | C.J. Fite | DL | Arizona State | 65% | $4.7M-$7.2M | — | — |
| 45 | Jayden Jackson | DL | Oklahoma | 73% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
| 46 | Kam Franklin | DL | Ole Miss | 42% | $6.9M-$10.6M | — | — |
| 47 | Mekhi Mason | LB | Kansas State | 45% | $6.5M-$9.9M | — | — |
| 48 | Jordan Ross | EDGE | LSU | 42% | $6.8M-$10.4M | — | — |
| 49 | James Smith | DL | Ohio State | 52% | $5.5M-$8.5M | — | — |
| 50 | Markis Deal | DL | TCU | 61% | $4.7M-$7.2M | — | — |
| 51 | Cole Sullivan | LB | Oklahoma | 46% | $6.2M-$9.5M | — | — |
| 52 | Michael Williams | LB | South Florida | — | $5.0M-$7.7M | — | — |
| 53 | Xavier Atkins | LB | Auburn | 52% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 54 | Bryce Young | DL | Notre Dame | 65% | $3.9M-$6.0M | — | — |
| 55 | Stephiylan Green | DL | LSU | 40% | $6.0M-$9.2M | — | — |
| 56 | LJ McCray | DL | Florida | 59% | $4.0M-$6.2M | — | — |
| 57 | Harvey Dyson | DL | Texas Tech | 38% | $6.2M-$9.5M | — | — |
| 58 | Kameryn Fountain | DL | USC | 30% | $7.0M-$10.7M | — | — |
| 59 | Vincent Anthony Jr. | DL | Duke | 27% | $7.7M-$11.8M | — | — |
| 60 | Kris Jones | LB | Boston College | 51% | $3.6M-$5.5M | — | — |
| 61 | Anto Saka | EDGE | Texas A&M | 37% | $4.8M-$7.3M | — | — |
| 62 | Brian Robinson | DL | Kentucky | — | $3.3M-$5.1M | — | — |
| 63 | Derrick Brown Jr. | LB | Duke | — | $3.2M-$5.0M | — | — |
| 64 | Devin Smith | LB | Kentucky | 27% | $6.2M-$9.6M | — | — |
| 65 | Trey Smith | EDGE | Illinois | — | $3.1M-$4.8M | — | — |
| 66 | Aaron Jones | DL | Temple | — | $3.1M-$4.8M | — | — |
| 67 | Owen Long | LB | Arizona State | 20% | $8.1M-$12.4M | — | — |
| 68 | Marvin Jones Jr. | EDGE | Oklahoma | — | $3.1M-$4.7M | — | — |
| 69 | Jalen Thompson | DL | Arizona State | — | $3.0M-$4.6M | — | — |
| 70 | Fred Johnson | LB | South Carolina | — | $3.0M-$4.5M | — | — |
| 71 | Marquise Lightfoot | EDGE | Miami | 13% | $11.6M-$17.8M | — | — |
| 72 | Matt Rose | LB | Stanford | 38% | $3.9M-$6.0M | — | — |
| 73 | Sam Williams | DL | Missouri | — | $2.8M-$4.3M | — | — |
| 74 | DJ Johnson Jr. | LB | East Carolina | — | $2.8M-$4.3M | — | — |
| 75 | Anthony Johnson | LB | Rutgers | — | $2.8M-$4.2M | — | — |
| 76 | Keith Smith Jr. | DL | Tyler J.C. | — | $2.7M-$4.2M | — | — |
| 77 | Anthony Walker | LB | James Madison | — | $2.7M-$4.1M | — | — |
| 78 | Nate Johnson | EDGE | Auburn | 19% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 79 | Jordan Pollard | LB | San José State | 11% | $12.3M-$18.8M | — | — |
| 80 | Joshua Williams | LB | Utah State | — | $2.6M-$4.0M | — | — |
| 81 | Princewill Umanmielen | EDGE | LSU | 27% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 82 | Nathan Voorhis | EDGE | Bryant | 23% | $5.3M-$8.1M | — | — |
| 83 | Elinneus Davis | DL | Washington | 28% | $4.3M-$6.5M | — | — |
| 84 | Kip Lewis | LB | Oklahoma | 17% | $6.5M-$9.9M | — | — |
| 85 | Owen Chambliss | LB | Nebraska | 20% | $5.4M-$8.3M | — | — |
| 86 | Ryan Henderson | DL | Texas A&M | 18% | $5.8M-$8.8M | — | — |
| 87 | MJ Stroud | EDGE | Georgia Southern | 27% | $3.7M-$5.7M | — | — |
| 88 | Jason Moore | DL | Ohio State | 20% | $3.8M-$5.8M | — | — |
| 89 | Jeremiah Hasley | LB | Duke | 13% | $5.8M-$8.9M | — | — |
| 90 | Brandon Smith | DL | Western Michigan | 30% | $2.3M-$3.5M | — | — |
| 91 | Kenyatta Jackson Jr. | EDGE | Ohio State | 17% | $3.8M-$5.8M | — | — |
| 92 | Whit Weeks | LB | LSU | 10% | $5.8M-$8.9M | — | — |
| 93 | Ben Roberts | DL | Michigan State | 10% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 94 | Jordan Norman | EDGE | Tennessee | 7% | $6.6M-$10.1M | — | — |
| 95 | Qua Birdsong | LB | East Tennessee State | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 96 | Nathan Murphy | DL | Wyoming | — | $0.9M-$1.3M | — | — |
| 97 | Jaylen Wester | LB | Western Kentucky | 6% | $6.1M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 98 | Chris Jones | LB | Florida State | 10% | $2.5M-$3.8M | — | — |
| 99 | Da'Shawn Davis | DL | Georgia Southern | 5% | $3.5M-$5.3M | — | — |
| 100 | Isaac Terrell | EDGE | Iowa State | 2% | $2.6M-$3.9M | — | — |
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.