August 2026

Little suspense at No. 1 — the offensive line is the bigger hole, but the model will not pass on the board's best player to chase it, and the simulator sends Smith to the Cardinals in every single run. Model and market agree on the player — first on both boards.

A first-round quarterback still on the board overrides any needs list; Moore answers it without a reach — No. 7 on the model's board. Model and market agree on the player — seventh on our board, sixth by consensus.

Simmons is the pick because the front seven is the roster's biggest hole, and the board cooperates: he is the model's No. 4 player. Model and market agree on the player — fourth on our board, second by consensus.

This one is pure board: the board's best player outranks a needs list that starts with the secondary, and Coleman is the model's No. 6. Model and market agree on the player — sixth on our board, eighth by consensus.

A first-round QB on the board bends every plan — No. 11 on the model's board. Model and market agree on the player — 11th on our board, 10th by consensus.

Johnson is the pick because the playmaker corps sits near the top of the Falcons' needs list, and the board cooperates: he is the model's No. 21 player. Consensus is actually higher on him than the model (14th to 21st), which makes the price at No. 6 easy.

Need and value point the same way here. The front seven sits near the top of the Titans' needs list, and Stewart is the model's No. 24. Consensus is actually higher on him than the model (third to 24th), which makes the price at No. 7 easy.

Call it 19 percent conviction — a contested board, not a hedge. Moore edges the field because the secondary sits near the top of the Panthers' needs list. Model and market agree on the player — second on our board, fourth by consensus.

The model is planting a flag: it ranks Williams 10th while consensus has him 21st. Call it a reach if you like, but the playmaker corps is the roster's biggest hole. The pick shows up in 19 percent of simulator runs, a genuinely open slot.

This is one of the round's open slots: 17 percent conviction, several live names. The nod goes to Stone because the front seven is the roster's biggest hole. Consensus is actually higher on him than the model (11th to 19th), which makes the price at No. 10 easy.

This is the house being the house: consensus puts Green 25th, the model says 69th, and the model is doing the picking. The front seven is the bigger hole, but the model will not pass on the board's best player to chase it. The pick shows up in 12 percent of simulator runs, a genuinely open slot.

Nobody should pretend certainty at No. 12 — the simulator makes this exact pick just 13 percent of the time, a genuinely open slot. A first-round QB on the board bends every plan — sayin wins the tiebreak because a first-round quarterback still on the board overrides any needs list. The model is higher on him than the market, 14th against a consensus 23rd.

This is one of the round's open slots: 12 percent conviction, several live names. The nod goes to Bolden because the secondary sits near the top of the Vikings' needs list. The model is higher on him than the market, eighth against a consensus 13th.

By consensus this is larceny: the market ranks Seaton seventh overall and he is still on the board at No. 14. The model is the reason he lasted — it has him fifth, right around this slot — but at this price the argument makes itself. The offensive line is a genuine need for the Falcons, so the marriage is easy.

This slot is genuinely open — nobody should pretend certainty at No. 15 — the simulator makes this exact pick just 11 percent of the time, a genuinely open slot. Robinson wins the tiebreak because the secondary sits near the top of the Jets' needs list. Consensus is actually higher on him than the model (12th to 32nd), which makes the price at No. 15 easy.

By consensus this is larceny: the market ranks Goosby ninth overall and he is still on the board at No. 16. The model is the reason he lasted — it has him third, right around this slot — but at this price the argument makes itself. The offensive line is the roster's biggest hole, so the marriage is easy.

Call it 10 percent conviction — a contested board, not a hedge. Washington edges the field because the front seven is the roster's biggest hole. Consensus is actually higher on him than the model (16th to 27th), which makes the price at No. 17 easy.

The model is planting a flag: it ranks Mensah 47th while consensus has him 35th. A first-round QB on the board bends every plan — but a first-round quarterback still on the board overrides any needs list. The simulator lands here in 9 percent of runs — a genuinely open slot.

You will not find Craver this high in other mocks — consensus says outside the top 60. The model disagrees, 60th on our board, and the front seven is the bigger hole, but the model will not pass on the board's best player to chase it.

Wilson edges the field because the board's best player outranks a needs list that starts with the secondary. Consensus is actually higher on him than the model (30th to 53rd), which makes the price at No. 20 easy.

This slot is genuinely open — nobody should pretend certainty at No. Echoles wins the tiebreak because the front seven sits near the top of the Texans' needs list. He is unranked in our consensus feed, so the model's ninth-overall call stands alone.

The nod goes to Lacy because the board's best player outranks a needs list that starts with the secondary. The model is higher on him than the market, 17th against a consensus 27th.

The board made this pick, not the need chart — consensus puts Marsh outside the top 40, the model says 36th, and the model is doing the picking. The playmaker corps is a genuine need for the Lions.

This slot is genuinely open — nobody should pretend certainty at No. A first-round QB on the board bends every plan — carr wins the tiebreak because a first-round quarterback still on the board overrides any needs list. 24 easy.

You will not find Robinson this high in other mocks — consensus says outside the top 80. The model disagrees, 230th on our board, and the playmaker corps is a genuine need for the Patriots. One pick later the 49ers took Duff; the model saw the tight end run coming.

The board made this pick, not the need chart — consensus puts Duff outside the top 100, the model says 227th, and the model is doing the picking. The board's best player outranks a needs list that starts with the front seven. The simulator lands here in 10 percent of runs — a genuinely open slot. The run was already on — the Patriots took Robinson one pick earlier.

This slot is genuinely open — nobody should pretend certainty at No. Viliamu-Asa wins the tiebreak because the front seven is the roster's biggest hole. The model is higher on him than the market, 12th against a consensus 34th.

A first-round QB on the board bends every plan — the nod goes to Sellers because a first-round quarterback still on the board overrides any needs list.

Green at No. 29 is the value of the round on paper — consensus has him 20th. The model is cooler, 13th on our board, which is exactly why he is still here. The offensive line is the roster's biggest hole, so the marriage is easy.

By consensus this is larceny: the market ranks Raiola fifth overall and he is still on the board at No. 30. The model is the reason he lasted — it has him 119th, right around this slot — but at this price the argument makes itself.

The model disagrees, 194th on our board, and the secondary is the bigger hole, but the model will not pass on the board's best player to chase it.

The board made this pick, not the need chart — consensus puts Young outside the top 90, the model says 38th, and the model is doing the picking. The playmaker corps is a genuine need for the Browns. The run was already on — the Bills took Sherrill one pick earlier.